Hi Jim...I am soooo happy this thread is here. I believe this price action is what I have been missing as far as my trading goes....I have now changed all charting to bars rather than the "pretty" candles!
Thanks!
Just make sure you put the time in to study it over and over again. You'll never look at a chart the same way again.
Hi again Jim...already it's a world of difference. I had 2 good gy trades. One pinoccio setup for a great short..on the 15 min chart earlier this evening and now I got a great long, 15 min. I was going to get in on the 50% retracement of yesterdays bar (see I learned this already) but chickened out and there was a triple bar pattern @ 209.57 to 210.20....This I learned from these great charts you have posted. I can actually tell where I am going! Thanks!
Just remember Price Action on small time frames can be unreliable, especially the 15 min chart. I don't go lower than the hourly and even that can cause many false moves. Small time frame are good for practise on seeing the formations, but the higher the better. Meaning the higher the time frame the more weight and/or strength Price Action has.
There are a lot of good people on this thread, very talented, study their charts and ask them questions. Keep reading and studying James16's charts and you'll be there before you know it.
Perseverance is a must in this business. Never give up on learning to improve and besides it's alot of fun.
i don't know, i think if broken the orizontal line... go up.
DBHLC is a bearish Price Action formation. Its just that on smaller time frames (hourly TF) PA doesn't hold much strength then on higher time frames. So, PA on lower TFs can be unreliable.
now, just so I am on the right track, an inside bar is used to confirm the trend will continue...the gy is in an overall down trend, so the next moves will be retracements of highs while a continuation downward....? Thanks!
IMHO a sub-optimal example.
It's a completely sideways motion and there was no steep run up prior to the reversal setup.
I think the most reliable setups are those occuring against/at PPZ, preferably with added confluence and "clear" of noise.
It worked out because all of the carry trade was being beaten to a pulp at the time(there was also a sideways HNS and subsequent loss of support / break of a bigger support as well); but ideally you don't want to take "reversal" trades in the middle of the chart if there's nothing to reverse due to a sideway staggering..where are you going to move to?
IMHO there wasn't a great or clear setup on my daily chart during that whole sideways except for "breaks" and retests / level losses..but no really great PA in itself showing.
The EURUSD chart and GBPCHF chart show how there can be "boundary" setups that work okay within a range at the extremes though and with a real "run up" first.
I think it was a very playable Price Action example. With tight stops at the S/R levels, one could have had a very low risk couple of trades.
Hind sight is always 20/20. Let's wait and see if another one presents itself in the future.
Like you all know I'm still working through the thread, but while doing that and analysing my charts I have come accross something which I would like you all to verify if you could.
This is a setup taught by Mr Tom DeMark, which I never thought worked until I started testing it on the Daily TF's.
Please have a look and discuss.
Regards
Werner
Notice that when Price Action agrees with the trend, the higher the probability of the trade becomes. Meaning: Bearish Price Action in a down trend. Bullish Price Action in an Up trend. Taking breaks of the Bottoms of Inside Bar in a down trend only and Tops in an Up trend only.
Pin Bars must not be ignored, as they are powerful reversal (trend) formations.
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its amazing how "THINGS START TO WORK" when you look at them again on a longer time frame.
there are a million ways to trade and the best ones dont make your charts look like a 5 year old with a box of crayons. lol.
good post wern.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi Jarroo!
I got the same setup
Profittarget @ 1.9360?
My targets for profit and exits are not based on fib levels. Unless they are aligned with Price Action.
Just as our entry was based on a confluence of events (in this case, a bullish trade), my exit will be base on bearish Price Action with confluences.
I will usually look to the 4 hour chart for Price Action profit tagets and exits if my entry was based on the Daily chart.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks for your answer. Do you mean the price aciton is not appropriate for the Friday-Monday bars?
I found that you used the Interbank fx MT4 platform but I used the Metaquotes MT4 platform to view the chart.
You can find the first false bearish outside bar is on 10-3-2008(which is Monday). Must I use the Interbank fx MT4 platform to watch the price chart?
Cheers
Aihua
Price Action is appropriate for Fri.-Mon. bars. Your data feed will vary on different demo platforms, but Price Action will usually balance out.
The Bearish Outside Bar on 3-10-08 (which is outside of Friday's bar 3-07-08) did provide some down movement of about 50+ pips. I would not say this was a false signal. It would have told me that the uptrend is very strong.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Trendline or S/R, I don't give much credit to demo data feed. I'm not that precise.
Like Jim's #2 example of the Bearish Outside Bar. I would call it a DBHLC, which is a strong Price Action formation at a new (short term) high. And it proved to be a strong move down. IMO.
What ever gets you to the positive pips.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
No . ....What phn said. A break of that first Outside Bar also breaks consolidation/range. ...So it's a good trade.
James even said: "Bullish outside bar signallingLIKELY breakout of consolidation."
Sometimes the overall price patterns leading up to the signal give you a strong case for a particular trade too.
On one hand trading price action can make things very easy, on the other hand, it's a little tricky getting to grips with all the nuances!
This is why it it's advised to learn one thing at a time and get good at it before moving on to the next one. There is a LOT to learn. I can see you're getting the idea though , for sure.
Practise, Practise, Learn and Practise.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
jarroo, I mean the pattern in below char. You can check it.
Now I have known why we should not take this trade because the bar price movement was supported by the S line.
Thank you.
Remember, we don't play Sunday bars.
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I think you mean this is a break out trade.
I should put one buy stop order above this R line but not right on the daily candle close/open price, right?
As your experience, how many pips above R line should be ok? 10, 20, or 30?
Thanks.
Your right! How pips above? 1 pip above.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
how many of you still have you charts covered with indicator garbage?
indicators were developed to impress girl friends and wives.
they dont work except for indentifying divergence.
25 plus years of experience is telling you to give them up.
they have never worked and never will because they cant withstand all market conditions.
We smile when we see a sideways market while they cry and run off looking for another indicator or system.
price and support and resistance are the keys to success along with patience and practice/demo.
always have been and always will be.
Jim
Once people live and learn this simple yet powerful statements, and concentrate on practising Price Action with S/R Levels, the better off they will be. (but you guys know this already on this thread.)
It has changed my accounts form negative to postive.
Jim, you are, and will always be, THE MAN.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
j has been a friend a long time. late 2005 to be exact.
jim
To be honest, it took me awhile to fully except and appreciate Price Action solely. If it wasn't for Jim's teaching style and kind hearted approach to this business, I probably would have never got there.
Thanks again, Jim, for all you do.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i've been reading your posts...reading and reading...it is a lot of information to swallow.....but as we all know it is more than very useful.
i also just signed up to your website....im having a feast while im in there with all the great information.
One thing i took from your website and posts was to: NOT LOOK FOR TRADES TO ENTER...BUT LOOK FOR TRADES NOT TO ENTER.
I've started live trading last year Dec 2008 after dummy trading for months. Due to dumb luck, I increased my account 40% in just under 3 weeks......got cocking and l lost 70% of my total at that point within 4 more weeks.....then decided to get more educated to forex. Since then, i have been able to recoupe exactly what i've started with 5K.
Anyway.....last night i took your advice....USED CONFLUENCE, and suddenly **Im up +290 pips (on 2 eur/usd trades)
**Im up >+110 pips (on 1 eur/cad trade)
**and im also in a chf/yen trade at the moment that "almost" sure that im going to conquer. its been fighting a losing battle i think. iv been within 10 pips for almost an hour ( was up 20 pips at one time)
I gained so much from your forums and so far with your website..
Thanking you isn't enough....so, thanks a million
Kevin
Care to share your confluencing chart, dread?
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what do you think about all the PBs on yen crosses today? Are they good setups? My fear is that this was an artificial move and tomorrow the market will resume its normal trend, which is down.
Many different setups when a Pin Bar presents itself. Retrace on Fib Levels (50%, 61.8%) are one way. A break of the top of the Pin Bar, in this case 201.39 which is at a S/R level. I like the Fib retrace myself.
The market does not have artifical moves. (Whatever that is.)
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Cheers jaroo still learning from people like you. Its all pretty new this price action to me I'm trying to look out for those A trades that Jim always talks about. one step at a time, but up untill now so far so good.
Practise and Patience and then more Practise. You'll get there.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi, jarroo, I am very sorry to disturb you, I knew my question might be very stupid, just give me a learning opportunity.
the question is, do you still think this Pin Bar qualified even though the retracement penetrate the 76.4 fib? the reason why I am curious about this is that I am thinking about 76.4 as threshold to filter weak Pin Bar,no reason, simply some gut feeling.
or, will you consider other opportunities which have the retracement above 76.4 at the moment, for instance,USDCHF, USDJPY or EURCHF?
I don't mind if you don't want to answer my question, I can fully understand.
Thank you for your sharing your trade. I think I received its value.
Price may retrace down to the bottom of the Pin Bar at 198.00 and then start heading up. Remember this is not an ideal Pin Bar, due in part of its location and the forming of the second eye. GBPJPY is a crazy pair and Price movements tend to over play itself.
I only use fib levels of 38.2 & 61.8 and 50% retrace. Is 76.4 a fib level? I don't think so.
A break of the 61.8 would qualify a weak Pin Bar, that's why I had a tight s/l.
USDJPY, USDCHF and EURCHF are not as crazy as GBPJPY and may prove to be better plays using fib retracements off of Price Action.
Hope this helps,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I think the Forex market is always laughing anyway, at how incompetent most of the "traders" are.
Incompetent is a strong word. I don't think most traders are incompetent.
Most are ill informed on the important aspects of trading. Number#1 is money management. Many traders pay little attention to the power of money management. The best system in the world means nothing, if proper money management is not applied.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
That is so true. I traded wonderful PA setups, my win-loss ratio was pretty good, and two and a half weeks later, I had $3 in my account. Trade with strict MM rules, and you will have an epiphany--it will click all of a sudden, and you'll realize how powerful money management is, and how easy it is to be profitable.
Tyler
Touch?, tyler812.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Good day.
I have been using J16 method trading futures. The great problem for me is to find the place to take profit. Can you pleace share the method of finding the right place to exit the trade. Do you move your stop to BE, and if yes, when is the righ time to do that? Thank you in advance.
You have two novice traders entering a trade at the same time, same pair.
One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
Answer: Neither is profitable.
You have two professional traders in the same scenario. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
Answer: Both are profitable.
How can this be so? The answers is simple: The Exits.
Many traders concentrate on where to enter and when to enter a trade, as well they should do and practise. But more time should be spent on where and when to exit a trade. Because that's where we make the money or lose it.
I like to set a given pip amount to reach on a given pair. (Ex., GBPJPY 50-70 pips.) This would be on half the position and the other half would be set to break even. This allows me to minimize losses and let my profits run.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thank you for your answer.
I'm fully agree with you about the great importance of the right exit. I have tested several exit methods. two that have shown the best results were: simply multiplying stop*2.5 (this allows to catch the small moves but misses the big ones) , combination of fib. projections MA's and SR lines( this allows to catch the big move but misses the small). Now I'm trying to combine this two methods, and see what happens
Novice traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to maximize their profits.
Professional traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to reduce/minimize their risk and reduce losses.
It's all about avoiding loses, temo. Work on that and the profits will take care of themselves.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The last question. When you move your stop to BE, very often the market will retest the zone where you entered, and then make a significant move in the direction you predicted earlier. how do you deal with that problem? or you just wait for another opportunity
I don't look at it as a problem or a frustration (well, not any more). I look at it as a sucessful trade. If Price goes up 80 pips and then down to zero I'm out. Shame on me for not locking in some pips.
What I don't do is remove my stop loss to try at get those pips I just missed.
A break even trade should be viewed as successful as a profitable trade. (Repeat)
And yes, another opportunity will always be there. Patience is another exercise that a trader needs to practise. (well, for me anyways.)
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Since I had a chart already PPZeded here it is with some extras...
The key is only playing the best set ups, eh? ...As usual.
That bottom PPZ is usable , but I'd rather a cleaner more obvious zone, personally. There are too many set ups happening around the pairs each month to bother playing the below par ones.
Took the break of the Daily Inside Bar at 200.29. It might have enough to break through the PPZ. Yellow and Blue areas are Weekly IBs. 1st target is 201.75ish
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Took the break of the Daily Inside Bar at 200.29. It might have enough to break through the PPZ. Yellow and Blue areas are Weekly IBs. 1st target is 201.75ish
Moving stop loss to 201.80. Already took some off the table at 203.68.
And . . . oh yeah . . . Price Action Rules!
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Sorry guys, we're getting off topic here by discussing individual trading styles. Let's talk PA again. So let's assume that the pair bounces off the low pivot and forms PA setup, a pin bar, IB or Beovb.If price breaks that setup to the upside, we can tell the bounce was successful and we're in a trade with good probability of making some money.
This was not off topic. This was explained perfectly.
Excellent raczekfx. I will add this to my Journal and read it everyday for a week.
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
heloo, this is my first on the forum.hope u find the time and patience to attend to my inquiries.i have being reading on james 16 chart thread but dont seems the get the heart of the system.am aware that cos am new to forex its going to take sometime to grow,am willing to learn as i already have my account blown already. my quest for solution brought me to forex factory. wouldbe glad if any can help. read alot about focus on higher time frames like day time frame,4hour and one hour,for stability but i dont know how that would work out for me as am on a mini lot of $100. what would work best for this kind of trader. hope i do not sound boring, just need some good lightthank in anticipation of ur suggetionsvinanebi
Price Action is not really a "system", it's more of a methodology of looking at Price movements in it's purest form, in real time. Higher time frames, you will find that these formations (i.e., Inside Bars, Double Bar Low Higher Close, etc.) hold their strength and are more constistent. Stick with the Weekly, Daily and 4 hour charts.
When you add Trendlines, Fibs and Support & Restistence levels with Price Action, a confluences of events can occur and a high probability trade can take place.
But it takes practise and study to fine tune this approach. Keep reading from the beginning of this thread and studying the charts. It takes time, but you can get there.
And one other thing, it's also a lot of fun.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The truth is, you are better off learning to read the price bars without any aids. Just because you see a technically valid pin bar doesn't mean you automatically take it. What's more important is WHERE the pin bar is. That is, how it looks and is positioned relative to the price action surrounding it. An EA with this capability is NOT a simple thing to create.
This goes for all the important price bars taught here. They are all easily definable in code, but coding the most important part of the equation is the major hurdle, ...the discretionary side of it.
Trust me. Taking the time to make all this second nature to you whenever you look at a chart is well worth it.
Well said, bundy.
Retraces, PPZ, Trendlines, Higher Time Frames (Weekly) in relationship to Lower Time Frames (Daily),etc.
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Here is a chart of chf/jpy. I would have a lot of trouble pulling the short trigger because of all those bar highs. That is fighting into a lot of support.
Mike
I understand the Highs that are providing the strong support on the CHF/JPY.
My question is, wouldn't the DBHLC be the PA we are looking for to break that support?
Meaning: Bearish PA to break Support and Bullish PA to break Resistence. (with allowances for retrace before the break, of course)
Thanks,
Jim
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Yes it could definitely be the hint for it, but I like playing OB, DBHLC, and pinbars at extremes that are not fighting into this(part of what I call creating "space"). It helps especially for the way I tend to exit trades as well. So when I see that, I would rather wait, or look to make a play on a lower timeframe.
With chf/jpy finally breaking out long after a lot of choppiness, that would be keeping me out from grabbing in short too. When I take a daily trade though, most of the time I am holding them for multiple days, so that also will change my opinion. I like things to flow out.
Again like you have mentioned so much too, it is all personal. But if it does stall out, it wouldn't be a surprise with that down there.
Take care
Mike
Quote:
Just to expand,
If chf/jpy makes its move down, we can see we have another large area of support to look out for.
This is why IMO it is safer to watch for a break long as there is less resistance on the way up, as there is on the way down. I trail my stops, and when there is resistance I often get bumped out before I can catch a move(this is a personal thing).
But I think we can all see how keeping things simple is so important. This is not magic, this is just the phenomenon of support and resistance.
Watch these levels no matter which way you are looking to play
Mike
Thanks Mike.
I don't trade the CHF/JPY, just studying PA and your posts .
Price on the CHF/JPY could also be coming down to test the support level and then continue up. A nice DBLHC on the 4 hour chart would help to confirm that.
A saw your video on the James16 website about the "space". Great stuff!
Looking for a good month to rejoin, been too busy lately.
Thanks again,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Here is a similiar situation for those wanting another example of how I trade.
Here we had a BEOB, or DBHLC but there was so much support we were fighting into that it makes the trade a tough one for me to every take(note* if these occur at extreme swing highs they can be a beautiful thing).
So instead I am geared up for a long move, which of course things don't always work out the way you want, but I am always looking for these big areas to hold, rather then break(when things are trending better one way that is).
Mike
see Jim, you ask a simple question and I rant 3 posts doh
I'll remind myself to ask you more questions in the future.
Great stuff and keep'em coming.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi everyone going over my different platforms today ive seen that I get better daily signals using a broker that uses GMT-1, and for 4HR signals they seem to be better with GMT-2 does anyone else have an opinion on this, what time zones they feel are better for different time frames for signals.
loving this thread by the way, thankyou james16 and everyone else involved, its so nice to trade a chart without the usual clutter of indicators, im quickly learning that price should be main reason to take a trade, just wish ide learnt this a few years earlier..
It's been my experience that Price Action with different GMT times usually balances out. Meaning they don't make that much of a differene. Just goes to show you the power of Price Action.
Who needs indicators when Price Action Rules.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If chf/jpy makes its move down, we can see we have another large area of support to look out for.
This is why IMO it is safer to watch for a break long as there is less resistance on the way up, as there is on the way down. I trail my stops, and when there is resistance I often get bumped out before I can catch a move(this is a personal thing).
But I think we can all see how keeping things simple is so important. This is not magic, this is just the phenomenon of support and resistance.
Watch these levels no matter which way you are looking to play
Mike
Looks like that DBHLC on CHF/JPY proved strong enough to break support.
I do understand your point that Price likes to follow in areas of least resistence, (I think I got that right).
Sorry can't post CHF/JPY chart, not at home. I will later.
Jim
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yes it broke hard, and stalled at the next area of support. For those that did take it, this is a good take profit area.
Mike
Classic Price Action trade on the Daily : DBHLC
DBHLC at PPZ (S/R area).
It formed at new Highs of the pair. (Yearly new Highs)
Price was moving hard and fast through the S/R area.
Depending on entry, Draw down and stop loss small.
Target Price well defined (Thanks Mike).
Text book PA. IMO.
Am I missing anything?
Jim
Forgot DBHLC resting on a trendline. (Thanks woolley).
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Heres my veiw, if the daily bar closes below 100.75 (38.2 fib)
it could go down to 100.00 area (50 fib) also a nice round number to try to find support if not then possibly lower but will have to wait for next bar to form at 2300GMT
Funny how the 38 fib lined up with the support level.
Nice woolley.
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good evening, ive gone through my charts and picked out what i think might be trades. all my daily charts are (GMT-1) my 4HR are (GMT -2)
(1) CHFJPY (daily) thinking LONG as price hasnt held belo 38.2fib level, also 4HR chart showing a DBLHC which gives further reason for me to think theres a retrace coming.
(2) USDCAD (daily) SHORT DBHLC
(3) EURAUD (daily) LONG price breached ema89 but was rejected plus theres the sma79 just below this which could act as tough support to break.
(4) GBPJPY (daily) DBLHC needs to break through resistance currently at 206.10 area then it has sma79 to go through but has already smashed through it a few bars back so not to worried about sma being so close.
(5) AUDJPY (daily) DBHLC also price has been rejected twice at the sma365 which makes me think theres not enough steam to push through.
I still have 1HR to wait till new daily bar but thats kind of what im seeing.
your comments please as i said before im new to this thread so trying to get up to speed with what you are all seeing in your charts.
Wow. Nice work woolley. This should keep me busy for awhile.
Thanks,
Jim
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Hey Woolley,
1. The dblhlc on the cad is actualy a tbh. the low of the second bar needs to lower than the low on the first
2. The same goes for the audjpy. my feed (nf) shows this as a daily ib.
3. Again with my feed the geppy shows todays low higher than yesterdays & not very convincing break above res. so be carefull.
Keep the chrts coming mate its how we learn.
cheers Jeff.
Good clarification rusty, on cad and audjpy.
Double Bar High, Lower Close of the previous Bar. The lower the close the better. Great example on the current CHF/JPY. The Daily 4/24 Bars on the cad and audjpy are Inside Bars.
GBP/JPY DBLHC is not perfect, because the Lows do not match. But I have found that as long as they are within 5 to 15 pips (on higher time frames) they work out pretty good.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Good afternoon everyone.going through my weekly charts ive come across these possible trades in the making, all these charts are from broker GMT-2
1. audusd short, pinbar touched upper bollinger and pierced through the above resistance but was rejected.
2. audjpy short, pinbar (not brillient) but was rejected from 50 fib level from last major bear run, my only concern is price has broken out from upper trendline but if you go down to daily there sma365 that seems to acting as resistance for now.
3. eurcad short DBHLC has tough resistance above which price has been rejected now 5 times.
4. audcad short possible pinbar price rejected from upper bollinger level need current price to move down some more to be convinced this is a decent trade in the making.
out of the possible 4 i think audusd and eurcad are probally the best signals at this moment in time but still good few hours to see how the weekly bars close, im still learning these J16 signals so your comments please.
Really nice analysis woolley, if this was Friday night. You really have to wait untill the Close of that weekly bar to get a true picture of Price Action. That's on any time frame as well. Gotta wait for the Close, my brother.
But hey, keep it up. Your doing a great job.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey thanks I know i have to wait for the close of bar but was bored, so i thought id post them now as potential signals. theres some nice dailys setting up too, I think im just gonna concentrate on daily and weekly charts from now as the signals are much clearer to read. sick of jumping in and out of the market x times a day although GBPJPY is always a fun one to trade intraday.
I trade off the Weekly, Daily and 4 hour. I had a great trade this morning with the GBP/JPY. Go here to see it in real time: Post#75388 page 5026
yeah was a good trade I was in it till about 0130 GMT this morning closed for a massive +7 pips but had to go sleep and already had a few trades open already which are doing well, a couple are backed up with next weeks possible signals which is nice so I will hold them if of course the signals are still there later tonight. I love having nice clean charts so much easier to see things as they are... inicators just cloud your judgment in my veiw, and i think ive used just about everyone there is out there, they might work for a bit (probally luck) then you realise they just follow the price so whats the point of having them? some MAs are left out of this rant of mine, they can be very useful at times.
Your right about indicators. I try to let others know that indictors are based on what? Price. So why not study Price. And that's what Price Action is : the study of Price.
Trendlines, fibs, S/R levels and some long term MAs are great tools to see where Price is heading and leading. Key words here are "heading" and "leading", not lagging.
Practise and more practise is the key and you'll get there, my friend.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Good afternoon everyone.going through my weekly charts ive come across these possible trades in the making, all these charts are from broker GMT-2
1. audusd short, pinbar touched upper bollinger and pierced through the above resistance but was rejected.
2. audjpy short, pinbar (not brillient) but was rejected from 50 fib level from last major bear run, my only concern is price has broken out from upper trendline but if you go down to daily there sma365 that seems to acting as resistance for now.
3. eurcad short DBHLC has tough resistance above which price has been rejected now 5 times.
4. audcad short possible pinbar price rejected from upper bollinger level need current price to move down some more to be convinced this is a decent trade in the making.
out of the possible 4 i think audusd and eurcad are probally the best signals at this moment in time but still good few hours to see how the weekly bars close, im still learning these J16 signals so your comments please.
How nice is that Pin Bar on the AUD/USD Weekly woolley.
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If chf/jpy makes its move down, we can see we have another large area of support to look out for.
This is why IMO it is safer to watch for a break long as there is less resistance on the way up, as there is on the way down. I trail my stops, and when there is resistance I often get bumped out before I can catch a move(this is a personal thing).
Mike
Not forgetting this comment Mike, just because the chf/jpy Price Action fell through.
Thanks,
Jim
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I'm relatively new as well so just take my comments as my personal opinion.
I guess you're talking about the daily timeframe? I posted charts of daily and weekly timeframe for reference. I'm watching this pair because to me it looks like its forming a wedge (ppz resistance ~1.0350 + up trend line).
In terms of PA: The reasons why I wouldn't take the short is because the pin isn't creating space (what u said about traffic), also I don't like the eye to be that much above the open/close of the pin.
But what really puts me off is the fact that the weekly up trend line is too close and so I don't expect the price to pierce through that support (not just yet anyway). This means that the reward:risk on a short is not appealing to me.
However, despite all those reasons I still think that price might move down, just not past the trend line. Hence I am sitting tight and hoping to play a bounce off it.
Hope that helps. As I said, it's just my personal opinion and I am fairly inexperienced.
good luck!
Carlos
p.s. This might be of interest as well. If you move to the monthly chart you'll see a DBLHC from the previous 2 months and a pin bar in January. Just thought I'd chuck that into the brain mincer
Nice jc.
I guess I have a different GMT time, but the Price Action may play out the same.
This is my take on the cad.
Current PA on the Daily is a Inside Bar (candle). S/R levels on the top and bottom of this IB look to be strong. A hard and fast break of these levels could be playable.
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Very dedicated, you are. I am curious how many pips you collected in 2007, to be this committed.
Not as many as I should have. lol
2007 was a huge learning curve for me and only now has that due diligence is starting to pay off.
Patience for A trades, Money Management, its all about managing loses not profits, etc., are important things to learn and practise. But, I have found that Perseverance is the number one drive to have.
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Inside Bars are defined as indecision in the market, which is neither Bearish nor Bullish. So, a break of the top and/or bottom could be a tradable opportunity.
The DBLHC (Bullish)from two weeks ago is still in play here. Price Action historically on higher time frames (i.e. Weekly chart) will retrace before they break and move. The retracement may have been completed from last week, down to the 50 % retracement level. We shall see.
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2007 was a huge learning curve for me and only now has that due diligence is starting to pay off.
Patience for A trades, Money Management, its all about managing loses not profits, etc., are important things to learn and practise. But, I have found that Perseverance is the number one drive to have.
Oh yeah . . .I forgot . . . Its a lot of fun too.
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Interesting... The monthly might be showing a pin, and the pair is at historical highs. In the daily TF I see PPZ and fib ret support @ around 100.33... I would personally like to see how the price interacts with this support. Having said that I also see a recent DBHLC in H4 and the daily PB (despite not creating the space I'd like to see) is perfectly valid. I wouldn't be surprised if it tested support again.
My personal decision would be not to take this. I'd be interested to see where it is come the end of the month though. Damn that's 2 more days... how time flies!
Take care,
Carlos
Yes, the Monthly (potiential) Pin Bar looks good. Sorry I can't post a chart, not at home right now. It is definitely on the watch list.
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I've been hearing a lot of people say that, zero risk. In essence, you waited 50 pips to b/e. So actually you did take a risk. And by having closed all the positions at the price you broke even, you could've gained 50 more pips than what you already got and increased your risk/reward ratio. That's why I don't consider this a ZERO risk trade.
I guess my point is that at the beginning of the trade their was a risk, I agree.
But once I moved my stop loss to break even, I eliminated any potiential loss on that trade. Yet, allowing unlimited potiential gain. So, what is that called?
Maybe the word "risk" is not being properly used here, I don't know.
But what I do know is:
Novice traders continually monitor, analyze and try to maximize their profits.
Professional traders continually monitor, analyze and try to minimize their risk and/or losses.
It's all about the losses, not the profits.
Jim
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Ok I won't beat u to posting that chart then :P hehe I like ur colour theme anyway I find it refreshing.. On that theme mmm I wonder to what degree colour themes affect one's psychology in trading...... hehe deep stuff man....
Yeah, that Monthly Pin Bar does look sweet, jc.
I would like to see that body of the Pin Bar Red (bearish). But it still could work out just fine.
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I stumbled upon this thread in an odd way. But in reading it I'm now quite blown away. I took James' advice and read from the start. I'm up to page 270 in almost two weeks.
Wanted to query if the Private side is still active as was noted almost a year ago. I'm wanting to learn more - much more.
My trading journey is like many I've met here. This forum's thought process seems to be the most encouraging I've encountered to date. Realistic and also optimistic too. Healthy balance from what I've learned so far.
thanks for all you've shared!
A lot of great people on this thread.
Welcome aboard.
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I think some people call it a "free trade"... Sounds right to me coz from the point you take your stop to BE it's as if your trade is free to roam around... (Hopefully it roams away and cha ching! )
It's all about controlling losses, my friend. The profits will take care of themselves.
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I've recently finally started behaving like this. Tonight I missed 150 pips short on Cable because I moved my stop to break even asap and ended up getting +5 before getting stopped and watching another 150 go in my direction. For the first time I didn't care, I got out unscarred. I've been doing this since the end of last week and I'm up around +60 from a bunch of small gains and break evens.
You'll get better at it, trust me. It just takes practise. Start locking in at 30, 40, 50, 60 pips. and set the other half at break even. And like you said I don't care if I get stopped out at break even. A break even trade is a successful trade in my book.
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Really? Bummer...I wonder if I'm uploading a wrong size. They show up for me when I view the thread.
You were braver than me on that weekly pin bar. I was going to wait til it broke 0.9360. But now with the nice 4 hour, I may jump in and short at 0.9410. Maybe I don't like bucking the trend especially at 00 numbers, but I will be watching
I see them, Kitara.
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Awesome, glad they are showing up Jarroo!
My first attempt at uploading charts, so it was a crapshoot.
My play at Aud/Cad:
I'm going to watch and maybe Short at 0.9410 and see what it will do at 0.9380. I think if it breaks 0.9360, then I will short again and trail it. I'm more of a daily trend follower, so this trade is not usual for me, but I like the odds. Smaller lot play for the 1st and my usual size if I get my 2nd entry. If it breaks that 0 fib line, I think she may have to go down a bit more and I can grab some good pips from it.
I think if the daily was going to start showing a reversal, it would have to break 0.9300, so I'm going to have some shorter stops than what I would normally use for daily trending plays. I still consider this counter trend. I'm not sure if the daily is ready to reverse yet... maybe not until it breaks below 0.9300, or even lower. I'm just looking to play in some consolidation and I think the pair may be due.
If you posted a chart with this post I can't see it now.
Are you using any Price Action to trigger you trades on the Aud/Cad?
I like the break short at .9410, which is the bottom of the daily Inside Bar.
Jim
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Okay, here is my update to the AUD/CAD...
Trading is getting ramped up in Australia right now, so lets see what they'll do.
This fib in my chart below was drawn on the 4hr. Now that we are into a new daily candle, please take note that it closed right on the trend line... to me this means to watch out for a pin candle, if price does go down. Possible headfake. I wouldn't have a buy stop at the 0.9410 right now. I'd wait to see how this next 4 hour candle plays out. Better to wait than getting tricked into a pin. Just my 2 cents though. Would love to hear other opinions!
(I see your chart when you post them.)
That Daily Inside Bar is also resting on a trendline. A nice hard break at the bottom of the bar could prove profitable. Sorry, can't post chart not at home.
Do you see any other reasons for a short trade?
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Yep, that inside bar sits right on the trendline. And with the daily opening on the trendline, it makes it suspect to me. I'd feel better shorting if the new daily and 4 hour opened below the line. I think now if it hits my 9410 entry, it'll be a fake out. Maybe the next 4 hour bar will give me a better clue.
I'm a daily trade trender though, so for me to counter trend trade at all is like asking me to drive backwards on the road at 60 miles an hour. I'm going to be cautious
I'm curious, do you see other reasons to short? I don't usually play 1 hour candles, but if there was a solid open below that trendline on a 1 hour chart, I'd feel more comfortable shorting now too. As I look at my chart now, it's hovering right at that trendline. It poked its head a little below, but came right back up. I kind of feel like a sniper right now. I love Aussie pairs, they have paid me well in the past. I know they can burn just as fast too though, so I'll be patient and stay in the bushes.
Don't pay too much attention to the break of the trendline. More attention to the break of the bottom of the Daily Inside Bar. I'm not dismissing the trendline, it is very important in the confluence of this potiential short trade. It is just that the Inside Bar has more power when they line up with more confluences.
Am I making sense?
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RED = Monthly fib ret resistance
GREEN = Monthly fib ret support.
On a monthly outlook price seems prompt for a swing-down.
Weekly: price went "touch and go" with last week's upper channel trend. Now could form a nice IB or PB? Either way you look at it potential break to the bottom.
Short-medium term confluence: PPZ channel, upward channel trend.
Longer-ish term: Confirmation if price penetrates green area? Could then be sitting on a free trade..... (hehe I won't abuse it)
Will keep myself out of this one for the time being.
Also can I ask people, what sort of % of your balance do you risk on average per trade? AND how many of these trades might you have open at any one time? Just curious... This is a very personal question and by no means I don't want it to turn into a debate on whether it's right or wrong.
Happy trading!
Nice job jc.
One trade at 3% or 3 trades at 1% each.
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You do make sense, but you're taking away my break pedal on my backwards fast drive into the brick wall
Aud/Cad will be watched close. I look forward to seeing how this one turns out. So you're thinking the break of 0.9410 will show enough strength to continue down? I would feel better if it wasn't counter they daily trend. If it broke down on the next 4 hour bar, I'd say cool beans. If it happens in the next 3 hours, I'd be weary of being tricked.
Now I don't follow fundies too much. Is there anything there that would make this short more convincing?
The key to building a case to enter a trade (for me) is center around Price Action. The more confluences of events that takes place around Price Action the more confortable I feel entering that trade.
So on the Aud/Cad, we have an Daily Inside Bar resting on a trendline. Pretty good. Now if a major Fib line or PPZ or S/R level also surrounded this Price Action would be great. And I would be sitting in the bushes with you. But we have to wait and see.
I don't follow fundies either, except for the 1st Friday of the month and Interest Rate announcements.
Price is News and News is Price.
Jim
("cool beans". How cute is that.)
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Bummer Jarroo.. Looks like you would have had a nice long setup if you waited a candle. A long at the yellow line would have played out. My TLs are from the daily. The lower one is current, and the higher one is from 2 DeMarc points earlier. I think price will continue up to that top line before bouncing down again. I wonder if we'll get a short entry from the weekly pin? I'm waiting til 0.9240 before considering an entry
Quote:
EUR/CAD
Playing in a nice range on the daily. The 4 hour shows a pin. If this bar fails to break support, I think it's going to bounce back into the range. Possible long entry for me.
Attempting 2 charts this time... watch out, I'm getting dangerous now!
Nice charts Kit.
I think the better entry on the Aud/Usd may be the break of bottom the Weekly Pin Bar. LOL
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I see what you mean. I still like the name though.
Like you said, one is still risking his/her potential profit. However, the way I see it, and this is my personal opinion, in a "free trade" my balance isn't going to go down if it goes against me.True, I might have lost a potential profit, but my pocket won't get any lighter.
My personal experience (which is tiny compared to most of these guys) tells me to be a bit more patient with stop loss movements to BE. I found that I was moving them too quickly and more often than not would get stopped out only to watch the position go my way.
This is still a grey area to me because I'm not sure yet what method works best for me. At the moment I am trying to take into account the TF of the trade. I.e. if it's a weekly signal I will let the move play out for longer than a H4 signal. I don't move my stop losses to BE blindly anymore... There are a few conditions which I look for before doing so...
It's a tricky one though and I can see how things would be different if I were trading a much bigger account!
Anyways just thought I'd share those thoughts.
Excellent JC.
That's what its all about in my book too.
Jim
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well, to me an A setup is candle formations taught by James16 that fall on a fib# for an entry on retracement I also love pins that occur on swing highs and lows. Aussie pairs seem to respect fibs well.
I have a homegrown system I play on the daily charts, but with Jim's teachings I am indicator free except for two MA lines. I don't even use the macd indi. Simplicity is nice. I'm a simple girl. Unless you count fibs and trendlines as indis. Oh wait, I did put on that smily face indi that woolley gave me earlier but it's not showing up all the time. Still need to figure that out
Patience for the A trade. Nice Kit.
I would not call Fibs, Trendlines and PPZ (S/R levels) as indicators because they show where Price may go in the future. Indicators show the past. Longer term MAs I would put in the S/R catagory. Woolley's "indicator" is not a indicator it is more of an identifier.
I like your teachings, Kit.
Jim
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this could well be the signal i was waiting for to back in the ausi weekly pinbar. il wait 30 min till bar closes, nice confluence with the fib levels.
you like?
I like.
Nice woolley.
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thank you Jarroo heres another short I took A bit more of a risk but look how many times price has been rejected from the grey area.
my charts still looking a bit crowded what MAs do you think are esential for the daily TFs?
James16 and others like the longer term MAs. The 365 EMA and the 150 EMA on the Daily, Weekly and even the 4 hour charts. They are mainly used as S/R Levels. Many watch how Price Action behaves around these levels. Price forming a Pin Bar on top of a 365 ema on the Daily, adds to the confluence of that trade that Price is reversing.
Also, when Price breaks these MAs, then returns and touches them, may show that Price may be in a continuation move.
Sorry I can post a chart, I'm not at home. I will later tonight.
Maybe others can help with this info.
James16, you out there?
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Jaroo, it's looking like pin is becoming a pin in traffic. What do you think? Also what about the BEOB on E/U, any takers?
Sorry I can post a chart at this time.
Aud/Usd Weekly Pin Bar looks to be in traffic, but it may just be in a big retracement move. It is at all-time highs.
The Weekly BEOB on the E/U. Solid Price Action in my book. It sure confirms that sweet Inside Bar on the Daily a week ago. (Nice one, belekas)
I know that mbqb11 (Mike) likes these PAs. I would like to hear from him.
1st Friday of the month coming.
Jim
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EUR/CAD
Playing in a nice range on the daily. The 4 hour shows a pin. If this bar fails to break support, I think it's going to bounce back into the range. Possible long entry for me.
Attempting 2 charts this time... watch out, I'm getting dangerous now!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitara
My Eur/Cad long triggered while I was out. Small profit right now but it looks like there is a ppz area it needs to see if it can burst up through before I'm into the better profit area.
Nice job Kit.
That 4 hour Pin Bar looks to be helping the long trade. Sweet!
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lets hope they do go our way, had a v good week so far, be nice to keep the pips rolling in, right im of now very late in london so see you all tomorrow good luck with your trades...
Later woolley.
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Thanks, I'm hoping it plays out. My worry is that this will just move sideways until London open and they'll try pushing it down again. Got my stop in place just incase. At least the swap is positive and even better since it's triple payout wednesday
Additional confluence on your trade is the 150EMA (support)on the 8 hour chart. Sweet.
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Did James16 first start using the 150/365 EMA's himself or was it adapted by someone else first? I use the 200 EMA as it's interesting watching how price moves around it at times. From what I've seen so far I don't see a huge difference between 150/200 EMA's...
Hey Aad. Still looking for where James16 talks about MAs. Its becoming a fun search.
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Hi Kitara I am indeed short at this moment in time although my charts looking a bit nicer for me (well I would say that) due to timezone difference. my SL is in the pink bar area about 40 pips away but the potential for a nice profit is there. I like the RR ratio. but will have to wait and see what happens.
I like the 4 four Pin Bar on the Aud/Usd you pointed out. And then the 4 hour Inside Bar appeared on the 50%.
That was it. I entered short on the break at .9410 stop loss at .9500. (Green area is the weekly Pin Bar)
Nice woolley.
(I hope you took this one.)
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LOL, the GBP/CHF did fly up didn't it It came down but looks like it may be using the old resistance as a support now?
Good job on the Aus/Usd woolley. I deleted some of my postings last night because I read in the PF that it's getting too journal like. Sorry guys.
I am still going to post good PA setups for others to comment on though. I am guilty of being over enthusiastic I guess. But as James16 would say, this is simple guys and it works. My account has grown because of it and keeps growing.
What do they mean to "journal like"? You read in the PF? Do you mean the James16 website?
Journal type posts go something like "I entered at 2.000" and that's it.
Your doing just fine, Kit. Keep them coming. There're very informative.
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I'm glad you signed up Woolley. I haven't been a member of their website group very long and I've just gotten through most of the videos and text lessons. So last night before I went to bed, I decided to check around in their journals to see if anyone had similar charts or entries like mine from yesterday. I saw one comment about the public forum turning into a journal, and I was like oh no! That's me! It didn't even dawn on me that I could be doing that. So I do apologize.
I've lurked on FF for a very long time now and only just recently registered so I could post. I'm already breaking the rules, LOL. They're right, I may have been jounaling, but I am a true fan of James16 teachings. Reading the beginning of this thead many many months ago and practicing with a demo as suggested has paid off. The income I've made from my daily system has given me enough to treat this as a business like James16 suggests and I now do PA trades with a live account.
If nothing else, people reading this can see one more success story. This does work. I hope everyone finds success with their trading whether it be for pizza money or for a living.
I look forward to next week. Thursday nights I volunteer and I will probably just wait for NFP to be over before entering in any more trades now.
Happy trading all!
Great stuff Kit.
Believe me, you would hear from Admin/Monitior(s) on this thread (and me) if you were breaking any of the rules.
If you had posts the just said, "I'm thinking of going long Usd/Jpy at 103.00."
and that's all you said. That would be a problem and you would hear from me asking "Why?". LOL
Keep doing, what your doing Kit.
Jim
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I'm not a member of the private forum so I can't speak for those there or even read the context of what Kitara read, but my guess is that it's simply a comment that there are a lot of posts on people's personal trades and ideas rather than the instructional-type posts that started the thread. There's nothing wrong with a post showing potential setups, but the instructional value seems to be less and less which makes it more like reading various trader's thoughts or trading journals. The thread started out with posts showing setups and comments around those setups to show why they were good (or bad) and how to best enter and exit them. James did a great job of showing the setups using historical charts which helped show the setups that worked and those that didn't. Lately we've been seeing more postings with numbers and entry points and less instruction/comment about PA and PPZs, so it's more like a journal than a PA instruction/information thread.
Also, I would guess that the comment in the private forum was not a comment on a single member but rather just the general atmosphere of this thread. I wouldn't take it personally, Kitara.
I think I see your point, but I can only speak for myself. James and others do a great job of showing setups and the reasons behind those set ups. I like to think I do the same thing. But for me, the devil is in the details. And I guess this is where the journal type comments are coming from.
When a reversal Pin Bar appears and the confluences are given to go (let's say) short. I guess where one enters and where one puts their stop loss is a personal thing depending on their stlye of trading. But I like to know where the specific entry and exits would be placed on a given setup for a high/low probability trade. This is instructive to me.
I just thought this thread has evolved to give more specific details on trading Price Action. I guess that's what the website is for. I maybe wrong. . . . I don't know.
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Sorry for bringing that up, I'll see if I can find it myself...:wave:
The important point is that the 365ema, 200ema and 150ema act as strong S/R Levels, especially on higher time frames. James said once (as I remember) that Price doesn't like hanging around the 365ema for to long.
Obviously, one needs to put them on their charts to see for themselves how Price Action behaves around theses MAs. I know I am.
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Careful Woolley,
hate to rain on your parade but look at todays and yesterdays daily bars, they form a dbhlc, very bearish and we are on a strong downtrend correction whatever....your pin is in a good position with the 365 and all but its got a very sad little tiny tail Im afraid...just be careful with this one, it may work fine but look at the daily! take care, Raz
Excellent stuff razl.
Just shows the point that one needs to know what Price Action is doing on the higher time frames their trading on. Because . . . Higher Time Frames RULE!
"very sad little tiny tail Im afraid". I love it. lol
But here's a thought on woolley's trade that may prove successful.
We know that Price Action on higher times frames tend to retrace before they break. Woolley's 4 hour setup may show the start of that retracement.
And still fulfill the Daily's DBHLC move down. Albeit, a higher risk trade.
So wooley's price targets could be fib retracements of the Daily DBHLC.
Any thoughts?
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I like the 4 four Pin Bar on the Aud/Usd you pointed out. And then the 4 hour Inside Bar appeared on the 50%.
That was it. I entered short on the break at .9410 stop loss at .9500. (Green area is the weekly Pin Bar)
Nice woolley.
Break of the Weely Pin Bar.
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Yes, I agree, and if you take things like atr into consideration eur could be due for a pullback.. or reversal whatever. I guess I would be looking for a stronger signal that things were turning around, thats all. In fx you can be long and correct and short and correct at the same time, depending on your target, funny that:. I wouldnt take the dbhlc as a signal to go short in any case, just a heads up that eur might have some unfinished business lower down. Might.
Nice charts btw, , take care, Raz
So a pullback on the DBHLC looks to be probable and your looking for stronger bullish PA to confirm that retracement. Makes sense to me.
Now I'm trying to get my head around Seekings above post. before I respond.
I'm thinking your saying the same thing. Maybe not.
Thanks razl,
Jim
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Good Morning Jarroo we did get a break of the weekly pin, but on my 4hr chart Ive just had a pin on the ema150 plus support area im looking for a retrace from the last bear rally back up to the 38.2 fib level then possibly the 50 level obviously NFP today so dont want to be in the trade for to long.
Yeah, I saw that too. That's why I didn't add to my position. I'm thinking I'll take some off the top of my .9410 short and let the rest ride though the NFP. Should be fun to watch.
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this is a screen of the pin i was referring to
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/JORDAN%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]
Do you have a meta trader plateform? If you do, right click the chart and save as picture. Select "Active chart" with 600x600 pixels. Save where ever you want i.e., desk top.
Goto "post reply" then "Manage Attachments".
Select "Browse" find your picutre i.e. desk top.
Upload and Sumit.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
this is a screen of the pin i was referring to
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/JORDAN%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]
That's the Usd/Jpy not the Eur/Jpy. May be that's what you meant.
The short answer is that the Pin Bar is in traffic. You do not want to play Pin Bars when they are clustered in the middle of a range or consolidating market. They are best played at a swing high or low of a trend.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Weekly - DBLHC (yellow area). It is still in play from 3 weeks ago. It has retraced to the 50% twice in the last 2 weeks and Price closed above the 365ema. (also TBH week 4/13 & 4/27, 208.99 and 209.00 respectively)
Daily - Inside Bar (green area). Broke the top.
4 hour - Pin Bar (purple area). Pin Bar at recent highs (2 month Highs) and is at a PPZ (S/R levels).
So, if you go by the known fact that "Higher Time Frames Rule" like I go by, then we are heading upwards.
But (isn't there always a "But"), we could be retracing down again signaled by the 4 hour Pin Bar which is with the downtrend of the Weekly and Daily. Yet, the 4 hour trend is up.
A Price break (hard and strong) above the 4 hour Pin Bar looks good northwards on so many levels.
Jim
Update: Forgot to mention the break of the top of the Weekly Inside Bar too. Price tucked inside that weekly IB by a few pips. Still more uptrend potienal. (Gold area)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If chf/jpy makes its move down, we can see we have another large area of support to look out for.
This is why IMO it is safer to watch for a break long as there is less resistance on the way up, as there is on the way down. I trail my stops, and when there is resistance I often get bumped out before I can catch a move(this is a personal thing).
But I think we can all see how keeping things simple is so important. This is not magic, this is just the phenomenon of support and resistance.
Watch these levels no matter which way you are looking to play
Mike
This comment from Mike, sure rang true on the Aud/Usd for me last week, trying to anticipate a short entry on the Weekly Pin Bar. Now we have 2 PBs.
Thanks Mike. Just letting you know, I'm paying attention.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The AUDUSD weekly setup is tempting but the monthly still looks bullish (almost a monthly BUB for April). I may take a short but last months bar and indeed the general uptrend would make me personally cautious about holding for too long.
I guess a short off the Weekly Pins would just be a retracement of larger trend.
Thanks fxprocessor.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Been studying all of this and this was a set up I watched on the 1 hour on Friday. Turned into a nice trade. Just studying charts and where the pin topped out was a area of resistance from 2 days before. I know the nose should be longer, but was just my 1st live pin I watched and paper traded and yes I will be trading longer time frames but in studying set ups at times the 1 hour does show me the price paterns I'm wanting to study. Any thoughts on this and was I looking at it right
That was a nice Price Action setup. The nose looks fine to me. Easy for me to say since the Pin Bar worked. lol
Let's see what else. Pin Bar forms at a S/R level, below M4. Also Price was making relatively new highs for the week and the Pin Bar (candle) was at a trendline. Good.
When Price Action presents itself you want to look at other confluences to support your trade. New Highs, Ema's (there are many but the 150ema, 200ema and 365ema are very popular), Fibonacci levels, Support/Resistance pivots, Pivot Point Zones, Swing lows/highs, Trend Lines, Price Action on Higher Frames Times, etc.
You also want to look at other factors that do not support your trade. Which contradicts your short trade in this case. These can be from the same list above.
Friday was a big news day (NFP), so Price can be erratic. (Yet, it looks like PA showed the way, despite NFP. Interesting.)
Price Action on lower time frames does work, they just need a lot more confluences to be effective.
All in all, nice job f4.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thank you very much, yes on friday with nfp. was not a trade I wanted to jump into, but was one I watched as it went down and that was a big help in slowly breaking my indicator habit lol. There still there, but I'm slowly walking away from them.
That's the beauty of Price Action. You can incorporate them into an existing method or system.
Obviously, alot of people use indicators and when they use them with PA it can only help confirm their trading. But you will find that Price Action will win out over time. You'll see indicators showing you to short and you will say "I knew that 3 bars ago." LOL
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Nice analysis Jarroo, I tend to mostly pay attention to DBLHC/DBHLC or IB's, other patterns are harder for me to spot or are a bit more suggestive. LOL! But I hope to eventually get them all with much more ease...
Check this out Aad.
BUllish Outside Vertical Bars and BEarish Outside Vertical Bars are very tradable at swing highs and lows.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Weekly - DBLHC (yellow area). It is still in play from 3 weeks ago. It has retraced to the 50% twice in the last 2 weeks and Price closed above the 365ema. (also TBH week 4/13 & 4/27, 208.99 and 209.00 respectively)
Daily - Inside Bar (green area). Broke the top.
4 hour - Pin Bar (purple area). Pin Bar at recent highs (2 month Highs) and is at a PPZ (S/R levels).
So, if you go by the known fact that "Higher Time Frames Rule" like I go by, then we are heading upwards.
But (isn't there always a "But"), we could be retracing down again signaled by the 4 hour Pin Bar which is with the downtrend of the Weekly and Daily. Yet, the 4 hour trend is up.
A Price break (hard and strong) above the 4 hour Pin Bar looks good northwards on so many levels.
Jim
Update: Forgot to mention the break of the top of the Weekly Inside Bar too. Price tucked inside that weekly IB by a few pips. Still more uptrend potienal. (Gold area)
4 hour Pin Bar proved itself with a 50% retrace before the break.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I've started reading this thread for the 2nd time around (took me a month to get through the first time around). Thanks to James, Seek, Mike, Jaroo, and everyone else. I've been demoing since February and came across Forex Factory some time in March.
Price action rules! Hope to be in the private forum before 2008 is over.
Welcome abroad Flem.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Repeating this as the posted charts show a similiar dilemma imho. EURUSD got all of 65 pips before reversing that "DBHLC" at the low of the chart(size of that stop = 216 pips, moved: 65 pips, r/r = one to zero point errrr something, 1:0.3 or so, even at max. pips moved).
Just to illustrate I'm not making it up.
Sure, "this doesn't mean these things don't sometimes work out"(matter of fact I'm sure people could find me quite a few that went and moved really well etc), but I personally(my preference) would much rather have more optimal situations or at least situations coinciding with other events of significance in order to make the setup more meaningful than the bar alone(break/confirmation of something important or similiar).
There's more to a trade than a bar or two imho.
I think I'm getting this now. (It's not you Seeking, I tend to make things more complicated then they really are.)
So, you would maybe wait for a retrace into that DBHLC so the stop loss (which would be on top of the DBHLC) would give a better r/r?
Or some other confluence (resistence in this case) within the DBHLC to place your stop to give you a better r/r?
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This thread is wonderful. Thank you to all those who post here and share so much helpful advice. I lurk a lot, but I do not post much, as I still have a lot to learn.
How do many you play Inside Bar formations (normally, I know there are different circumstances)?
Do you play the break of the outside bar?
Do you wait for it to break the outside bar, and then let it retrace back to the inside bar and get in expecting a continuation away from the outside bar (breaks long, comes back and touches the outside bar, you then buy long)?
Thank you!
T.J.
Yes, and this ties into what Seeking is talking about. There should be (or "must" be) other reasons to entering a trade than just a bar or two.
Inside Bars, Outside Bars, etc. need to have other confluences surrounding that formation to support a given trade. An Inside Bar that is just below a new High, at a S/R level (PPZ), Trendline right on top of it, at a 61.8 Fib level . . . wow, sounds like a good trade to short. These confluences, not all but many, need to be seen before a trade can be placed. imho.
Also, on higher time frames Price Action formations will tend to retrace before they break. Finding retracement levels, be it Fibs, long term MAs, S/R levels, etc., are the key trading requirement that takes practise.
Sorry, I can't post a chart right now, not at home.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I noticed your DBHLC post the other day. Was in traffic in my opinion, for one.
Like Seek mentioned, you'll do a lot more good taking those types of trades when they're placed better. ...Against trendlines or PPZ or swing highs or whatever. With the major trend even better.
It's an important point to remember that we don't take every price bar setup just because it meets the definition. You make a lot more money by waiting. You know that!
You COULD have used that daily DBHLC as a momentum indicator if you were good. Trading intraday price action in that direction. ....Using the appropriate nimble trade management that goes with it, of course. (hmmmm ....new smilies!! )
Excellent bundy.
"DBHLC as a momentum indicator". Price Action itself as an indicator. I love it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I can see the next bar after the pin bar broke the lower level, then it went against you a great deal (50%) what was your SL??
Depends on your entry.
Many different ways to approach a pretty good located Pin Bar with a few good confluences. With that said . . .
The ideal stop loss position is always above or below the Price Action your trading. In this case, above the Pin Bar.
Now it you entered at the open of he next Bar the s/l could go above the PB at about 100 pips. Enter at the break of the PB, s/l could go at or above the 38.2, 50, 61.8 or above the PB. You do the math.
Or you could of waited for a nice level right eye to form and then enter, which would have been at about the 50% then enter. s/l would have been less then 100pips. I believe this is the best case according to James16 and others.
Now this is with the Pin Bar itself, placing a s/l. Other factors (like trendlines, S/R levels, etc.,) can come into play to effect the placement of a s/l.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thank you for your help. I guess an inside bar shows indecision and a possible change in trend. Emotion is buildng and it should explode in one direction or another. If the bar is mixed with other confluence areas, then it becomes a very good trade.
Thank you for your time.
T.J.
That's it T.J. You got it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I am a bit unsure how to play these kind of bars. Jim wrote on the first few pages that he plays the retrace and the risk is less. With retrace entry you will miss the move many times because price did not retrace.
Mike said that he usually plays the break of any price action bars. Is it enough to set limit sell just a few pips below the DBHLC bar?
Which one has the higher probability, the retrace or the break?
I guess it is personal decision.
Where should I put the SL, is it the a few pips above the DBHLC bar?(it can be quite a large SL in many situations)
I would say that if there was no retrace and you took the trade at the break then that would be a high risk trade. Getting in at a retrace at a Fib or other S/R level is a low risk trade. Just for the simple fact that you are placing your s/l at the top of the DBHLC.
At the break -big stop loss. At a retracement - smaller stop loss.
If there is no retrace and price just breaks then you skip it. No harm, no foul.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
No one can tell you for sure which has the higher probability unless they take your trades. But by the nature of playing a retrace(an unconfirmed bar), you will be stopped out more and thus have more trades then playing a break. Again by the nature of the technique. But on the flipside playing a retrace you have the ability to have a larger position on, thus making up or even doing better then playing the break. So it is going to come back to your comfort level as a trader. Playing the retrace would involve me trading too many bars and thus I wait for the break. I am never worried about the stop size, because if the bar is in a prime location, that would mean it is justified. Remember to always position size accordingly. What kills most people, is they put on 100pt stop and then see 10pips and get scared to hold it. To me everything is relative. So yes you can play a break a few pips(depending on what you define as a few) below/above, and your stop a few pips above/below respectfully.
On a more general but related note.
The best advice I can ever give with PA is too wait for the cherries. Wait for the best setups. It takes all the thinking out and they really are the best out there! Remember every price bar has information, but we are look for the tip off bars. The bars whre we can actually understand the information and the importance of that information. If you try to trade every formation you see, you will go crazy(believe me and many others who have before you).
If it doesn't get easier then this I don't know what does. You can go an add all the fibs, TLs, etc that you want to this chart. But the reality of a great price action bar, is you don't even need them That is exactly what my chart looks like on my screen following this trade. James is the man!
Great post Mike. Thanks.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
great question and it shows that j is ahead of most people. divergence will kill you in a trending market and many many traders in the futures markets have learned that the hard way by using it blindly. divergence is a great tool however when combined with price action analysis.
it simply gives confluence or gives wieght to a good bar set up.
jim
Thanks Jim.
For those of you who want to get ahead of most people, read and study this entire thread a few times. That's all it takes.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
We have 2 Weekly Pin Bars, Daily DBHLC (when completed) formed from new Highs, and at a PPZ (S/R level). I would look for bullish Price Action on 4 hour to see if any retracement may take place. But all in all, this is what we look for in my book.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Yeah it wasn't tradeable long as a pin due to its location but the fact that it existed shows it exhausted something on the down side and then was able to surpass that, finding new downside strength.
Right now I think it's bouncing off a support from a previous resistance around April 28. If it can get beneath where it is now and then test this level from the under side, a short would feel good.
Right. If the nose was pointing down instead of up, a retracement could have been very possible.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I would take that trade, If you look hard enough you will find 10 ways why you should and 10 why you should not. then you don't take it, then you screw up next trade because you missed "The big one". I don't use fib's MA's any of that crap, look at PRICE that is all that matters and to me this is a good pinbar. If I see someone with over 2-3 indicators on there chart I ask them how it helps? So far I have never had anyone able to not look at it and see it both ways. Remember all indicators lag and can been seen both ways. Remember this quote "It all works, and none of it works" I was told that by a friend who has been banking over 1 mill a month going on 17 years Sorry for the wall of text hehe
I don't consider Fib levels or long term MAs (when used as S/R levels) as indicators. They show where Price may go in the future. Indicators show the past and lag, true.
Higher time frame Price Action will retrace before they break, more often then not. There is nothing wrong with looking for a better entry. I like the 50% retrace myself.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
thnx for your reply. I would slightly disagree that fibs is a lagging indicator. It's based on the historical data, yes, but what isn't? But not lagging. And their usefulness lies in the fact that the market is watching for these levels, so it's a psychological thing rather; but I have seen it work in plenty of cases to use it as one of the factors for the decision making.
We're all entitled to our own views. Once again, thnx for the reply. Sorry for the off topic.
You keeping trading in your stlye Masterpfx. Looking for a better entry to lower your risk via Fibs, is a good approach. Check out the 50% retrace on the Daily (close enough) DBHLC on the Aud/Usd. Right around the 50%. Interesting.
Price was moving pretty fast so a nimble finger was required.
(A friend making over 1 mill a month . . . my a**)
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It is looking good. I was gonna take it earlier but froze. Moved 80+ points since then...
If you mean before it was formed, then that was a good thing. You always want to wait for Price Action formations to close and present itself before you act. Trust me on that.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If you guys and gals haven't seen chins new fib tool. Please take a look. Very nice fib tool and tons of great options. But you will have to watch the video to learn how to use it and what it has to offer.
I have to admit, I took the gj pin. It actually looked good to me on Alpari. But....I learned that it is safer to let price come to you nice and softly in its own natural market breathing, not when it is hyperventilating. Its easier to pick cherries when they are motionless on the branch then to run around and catch them when falling.
Ditto that. . . and so did I.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
exactly Jarroo I look at it as tuition fees..
ive also narrowed down the pairs im looking so I can analyse them in more detail, just waiting for some nice A trades to come to me now.
My thoughts exactly.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I guess my question is concerning the stop level. I see the different entry strategies, and how they can minimize risk. No matter the entry a proper stop needs to be just below the pin bar, yes?
That's correct joe.
The best location to place a stop loss is above or below the Price Action that triggered your entry.
Other approaches can be made depending on your style of trading, which you will develop over time.
One approach is using Fib retracements. The example is a Pin Bar on 3/17/08.
As you mention the best place to put your stop loss would be right above the Pin Bar. Other stop loss placement may be near the Fib retracements.
A stop loss just above the 61.8 level would have been a sucessful placement. (Athough it doesn't appear to be a good placement on the chart. But, Price retraced above the 61.8 prior to the break of the PB.)
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thank you jarroo, you and many others on hear are incredibly helpful and most appreciated. I think some lights are beginning to turn on for me. I am going to attempt to post a chart for the first time. I have been looking for price action to confirm for me that the Cad is going lower. Does anyone see what I see here?
Nice joe. I see it.
But the problem with it is that it is in the middle of the preceding Bars or what we call "traffic". We like to see these Price Action formations at new or recent swing Highs and Lows. They just prove to be more powerful at these location.
You will hear many times on this thread the importance of the location of Price Action and other confluence that support a Price Action trade.
Now don't get me wrong, this DBHLC could prove successful. Maybe after it retraces up for a while it may come down and break the bottom of that DBHLC. We will have to wait and see.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Even if this becomes an Pin bar (and it is way to early to tell this)..
it would be IN TRAFFIC ..we search for price action at swing highs/lows and areas of confluence !
i would not consider this as an trading opportunity in my book!
of course thats all imho and my interpretation of what i am learning in J16G!
Excellent point Aidan.
But if you ignore the Sunday candle (yellow) which we do when looking for Price Action. And combine the 5/09/08 and 5/12/08 Bars (candles) we would get a two day Pin Bar. Something to look act.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
But if you ignore the Sunday candle (yellow) which we do when looking for Price Action. And combine the 5/09/08 and 5/12/08 Bars (candles) we would get a two day Pin Bar. Something to look act.
Retrace levels.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi,
Ok here goes. The trend line broke a couple of days ago yesterdays bar retraced but the bulls pushed it back up and it's currently pushed past a tripple bottom from the the previous swing low.
Working out PA is pretty new to me so forgive me if it sounds like jibberish.
Thanks
Those are all good secondary reasons to support a good Price Action trade. The only thing that is missing, is the Price Action formation itself.
Now there is a Pin Bar that formed yesterday but its in a bad location. If it was at the lowest point of a few days ago, then we're talking about a potiential Price Action set up. Along with confluences you mentioned i.e., Trendline break, support of the 365ema (magenta), breaking the S/R level, etc.
Now don't get me wrong, Price Action is a powerful thing, especially on higher time frames. And that PB may prove successful. But the set up is not perfect enough to risk an entry in my book.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Nice short setup on EUR/USD. It would be better if today closed lower than yesterday, but it still looks like a potential setup, imo, and right at the ppz. Price is stuck at some support ont the H4, but if it makes it through, could be a pretty good trade. Any thoughts?
Tyler
EUR/USD Daily
I do agree with bundy that there isn't anything that stands out, Price Action wise, that would initiate a entry.
But we as students of Price Action need to study and practise as much as possible. It doesn't mean we have to make a trade. Because we want the best Price Action in the right location with a good about of confluences to make a high probablility trade.
What I see is Inside Bar (candle) on the Eur/Usd Daily.
Let's break down the current Eur/Usd. We have IB at a S/R level (PPZ) and we are in a down trend.
Anything else?
High probability trades with IBs are to take a break at the bottom of IB in down trend or take the break of the top IB in a uptrend. So taking a break at this bottom IB could be a possible trade. Is it the best trade? Probably not. That's up to the trader to decide.
Its always good to analyze Price Action in different ways, this is how you get better at it over time. IMO.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Any thoughts on why this pin bar set up didn't work?
It's location was not good. It wasn't at a new High or Low for the week or Month let alone the Year. Pin Bars are mainly reversal Price Action formations. We want see them at swing highs and lows.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
One could argue that it wasn't triggered - and if it isn't triggered it isn't a pin..
I think we had a definition flying around where it isn't a pin until it trigs(which is why the retrace entry stuff is always a tradeoff between higher leverage and more risk due to an unconfirmed setup).
Well put Seeking.
(I'm going to steal that definition for sure.)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
But if you ignore the Sunday candle (yellow) which we do when looking for Price Action. And combine the 5/09/08 and 5/12/08 Bars (candles) we would get a two day Pin Bar. Something to look act.
Interesting.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I do agree with bundy that there isn't anything that stands out, Price Action wise, that would initiate a entry.
But we as students of Price Action need to study and practise as much as possible. It doesn't mean we have to make a trade. Because we want the best Price Action in the right location with a good about of confluences to make a high probablility trade.
What I see is Inside Bar (candle) on the Eur/Usd Daily.
Let's break down the current Eur/Usd. We have IB at a S/R level (PPZ) and we are in a down trend.
Anything else?
High probability trades with IBs are to take a break at the bottom of IB in down trend or take the break of the top IB in a uptrend. So taking a break at this bottom IB could be a possible trade. Is it the best trade? Probably not. That's up to the trader to decide.
Its always good to analyze Price Action in different ways, this is how you get better at it over time. IMO.
Jim
Although this Price Action set up was not defined as the perfect trade.
If you were to take this trade ( or any trade for that matter ) wouldn't you want it based on some assemblage of Price Action?
Price Action RULES!
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I've been lurking around here for some time and now plucked up the courage to post. Would like to thank james and others here for the help and knowledge they have provided throughout this excellent thread.
Check out the potential pin bar on cable, its on a strong ppz. Hope it stays like this.
Good eye redbull.
That is definitely on the watch list.
At a strong PPZ, off of new Lows, on the Daily and the nose nice and long.
I 'm sure mike would say its got some good "space" as well.
Nice.
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Hi Jarroo. I believe this is a good trade setup but I'm interested to know how you would define a daily pb break?
A Pin Bar break (in this case Gbp/Usd) is defined as Price moving up and throught the top of the Pin Bar. The top of this Pin Bar is 1.9472 and Price broke that level.
The next question is "Where do I enter?"
One way is to enter after the break at 1.9473 and place the stop loss at the bottom of the Pin Bar, around 19360 level. If this is an "A trade" Pin Bar set up, then this is a no-brainer. Is this an "A trade" Pin Bar?
It sure looks like one. Pin Bar is off a PPZ (S/R Levels) and the nose looks OK but it could be longer. Any thing else?
We have been in a down trend since March 14th. That looks pretty strong and could be a problem. (Boy, didn't that BEVOB look sweet on March 14th).
Once the Pin Bar broke, you could look for a retracement using fibs on the Price Action itself. Looks like it did retrace down to the 61.8 and started moving upwards which is a good sign. (Sorry I can't post a chart, not at home.)
Just a few thoughts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hello everybody,
Please i need help on how to get a 'perfect setup of Pin bars'..or explaination on 'how pin bar works on retrace'.....thanks
Here is a Price Action course that is excellent. It cost $15,000. But it is well worth it. It provides continues education and many example on how to trade Price Action correctly. It's rather long and it takes time to learn and study it. Nothing worth its salt is easy. Yet, we know it is easy to understand. It just take practice.
Here it is. Its fantastic!. It cost $15,000 but its worth many times more . You'll be glad you did. Why? Because it WORKS!
Here is a Price Action course that is excellent. It cost $15,000. But it is well worth it. It provides continues education and many example on how to trade Price Action correctly. It's rather long and it takes time to learn and study it. Nothing worth its salt is easy. Yet, we know it is easy to understand. It just take practice.
Here it is. Its fantastic!. It cost $15,000 but its worth many times more . You'll be glad you did. Why? Because it WORKS!
Didn't I catch anyone on this? I didn't even get a warning from one of the Monitors about a rules violation. Man, tough crowd.
I was just trying to make the point about the value of the James16 Chart Thread. So many people are looking for something to improve their trading or are just starting out in this business. And right here at the old Factory is something that cost nothing monetarily, but you have to put the time in and study it from the beginning.
Jim and so many others on this thread are just fantastic people. They give up their valuable time and help people who are willing to learn what PA is all about.
It's Priceless in my book.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If it was my trade, now that we have broken the high of the BEOB, I'd be moving it to 20 pips below the BEOB @ 1.9430 , even if it's still not at BE there.
Wow, bundy. What did you say to the Pound. That baby is flying.
Thanks bundy I was waiting for 1.9600 to act as support. But the BEVOB sounds good to me. 1.9430 (38.2)
Edit: I had the Fibs upside down. Duh.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Initial PB long, add on third 4h TL touch(not drawn in as this one is already a bit cluttered - but I'm sure you'll be able to find it: just connect the first two lows), then took it up to 1.96.
Around that bit I wanted to watch for PA and react accordingly, and around that time I suffered 2-3 hours of power outage. When it was back on, I saw a triggered 4h PB and a lot of red...oh well, still got a bit.
It looked like a 5 wave set(strange EW nrs on chart, just something I try myself at parallel) and with a retrace right to .618 and a weekly stubby PB, waited for 1h stalling and something else to tell me this wasn't going to just rush-and-crush on. When I got that, got back in(based on the weekly setup -> retrace entry) and put stops below 1.9390 initially(second lowest low, invalidation point for me), then moved them in as we moved to 1.96.
And here I am waiting to see whether 1.9666 goes and 1.97 is hit...
Also took a bit off above 1.96 as there's 1-2 other reasons why price may or not give back a little.
Had it not been for the power loss, it would have been one great trade progression, and I would have possibly even taken a small short on the 4h down to either 1.95 s/r or the TL(i.e. very small / short term due to the s/r and weekly PB).
Glad to see you got your power back on.
Got to love that PB(4h/Daily/Weekly). If that doesn't scream at you, nothing will.
Do you see a retrace in the Weekly PB's future? (1.9632 break)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It's a lot more about the market having a noticeable change in sentiment.
For example, if you get one real long bearish bar closing way low. ...Longer than the average bar range on the chart. ...Now imagine the next bar totally undone that whole bars good work and closed right next to the previous bars open.
...That's pretty powerful information sitting in front of you isn't it?
Look at a pin bar the same way. The best pin bars will open and close at very close price points after first extending strongly in the prevailing trends direction, and then reversing convincingly. If that bar closes within the previous bars range (the left eye so to speak) it shows that the trends strength has gotten very weak, not even able to improve on the previous periods gains and even losing some of them. You could imagine that the further it erodes the "left eye"s territory before closing, the better.
Hope I've explained it clearly. ...Maybe not. LOL
Great post bundy.
One never stops learning on this thread.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Or You get lucky sometimes when as bundy says . . "coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!"
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I believe that is closer to a beob. I appears to me that this beob is in some traffic (not at a swing high), as well as sitting on a ppz. To me, this is not an A trade.
Tyler
Yeah I think I see that. Gotta chart?
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I see thanks for pointing that out. i caught the last move down on this pair 3 days ago. I still may place a sell limit 20 pips or so below the bar but I agree it isn't the best setup.
So you like the GBP/USD to 1.9963 alot better? I jumped ship from a weekly trade last week prematurely. Still need more patience when I make a decision based off the weekly charts gotta learn to ride it out.
1.9963ish area is just a heavy PPZ area, not necessarily a Price Target. If Price gets to that level, it will probably stall or be rejected and fall. If it blows past that area it will also tell me something.
Patience is a must in this business. Waiting for the best set up and letting a trade run its course.
The toughest part for me to learn in a long term trade is accepting the amount of pips that swing every day. Meaning being up 200 pips one day and down 200 pips the next day. But once I decided to concentrate just on the stop loss and forget about the gains, it made it easier.
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Check it out. DBLHC at a confluence of fib retracements (not all shown). The daily chart had shown bearish divergence at the end of April. Does this cloud the potential? I will watch for P/A on smaller timeframes if we retrace Fridays bar.
Not necssarily cloud its potential but show its potential. Price Action tends to retrace on higher time frames. The divergence may show the beginning of that retrace. (Although I am not a big fan of divergence).
Bullish PA in a uptrend and Bearish PA in a downtrend it not a bad way to start. Add some supporting confluences and you have yourself a potential high probablilty trade.
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I think the charts are beginning to speak to me. On Thursday the Cad gave us a spinning top, inside bar. Also on Thursday the Aussie gave us a DBHLC. On Friday the Cad broke topside and the Aussie formed an inside bar.
So I'm thinking either I take the Aud/Cad long on a break of that DBLHC, or an even better scenario would be for the Cad to come back a little and then take the Aud/Cad long at the break of the IB on the Aussie?
Thoughts??
I would wait on a retrace on the DBLHC Aud/Cad on the Daily. If Price breaks the top before a retrace, I would entry a small position with a tight stop under the 61.8 fib of the DBHLC.
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Looks like a pretty good beob which has retraced to the 50 fib ret, if I drew it properly. Also touched previous area of resistance.
Quote:
Tyler,
this is what I see on 4h. There is a kinda pinbar on weekly. The fibonacci tool should be placed on the swing high, on your chart at the high of the bulish candle.
Greets
kpt
As pip bagger pointed out, the BEOB was a bit short on the top side. An Outside Bar (candle) has to be totally outside the previous bar (candle) including the wicks.
Tyler was looking for a retrace using Fibs on Price Action itself. Either for an entry or a stop loss placement after the break of the "outside bar (candle)".
Here is an example of a BEOB on the Usd/Gbp (3/14/08) using Fibs for a stop loss placement after the break.
The ideal location for a s/l would be on the top of the BEOB. But Fibs can be used to reduce the risk exposure. Above the 50 & 61.8 would have been safe.
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I would wait on a retrace on the DBLHC Aud/Cad on the Daily. If Price breaks the top before a retrace, I would entry a small position with a tight stop under the 61.8 fib of the DBHLC.
Aud/Cad
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Price sure has it's hooks in the 365 ema I've taken half off my 1.9474 and 1.9635 entries at 1.9812. Now I'm managing my stop loss for a long term trade. Current s/l at 1.9610 for both trades. Any suggestions?
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try seeing (or merge them together) the last two weekly bars on eurusd, you get a nice pin bar.
Can anyone of more experienced traders here tell us if that's of some value?
Absolutely. Combining Bars (candles) especially on higher times frames can give you a look at Price Action that others (the market) may not see.
More importantly, the rules (guidelines) still apply when looking for tradable Price Action set-ups on combination Bars.
Is this two week Pin Bar (chart 1) in a good location? Well not really. It's in traffic. It has no 'space" due to the previous bars but it is off new highs.
How about the nose. Looks pretty good. It's 2/3 nose. Good. Open and Close within previous Bar. Good.
Uptrend is real strong. Look at the 2 week Pin Bar in the green area. Great looking PB with space and everything and it did fall 200 pips. Yet it fail to deliver out of all it's splender.
How about the BEVOB in the blue area, talk about good looking. Yet it broke the bottom just a lttle and failed to deliver.
So this 2wk PB in mid traffic is not looking good. But Price Action is a powerful thing and this could prove worthy. Maybe this 2 wk PB with the 2 wk BEVOB will provide the strength it needs to cause the fall. Hard to say.
Or maybe we should wait until the 3 week BEVOB breaks (chart 2) .
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Or You get lucky sometimes when as bundy says . . "coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!"
Well...here I am again . .one week later.
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i have a doubt with a BEOB. The actual body don't need to encompas the previous bar/body... right? It is difficult to see in post #10 wich is the first time James shows a BEOB.
thanks in advance.
ps:there is a BEOB right now on UJ hourly. It is valid?
The High and the Low has to encompass the previous bar.
A better look.
Yes, that is a valid BEOB on the hourly Usd/Jpy.
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I've seen it both ways so I think a clarification would be welcomed.
wich of these two would qualify as a BEOVB?
case 1 where open and close are outside previous bullish bar.
case 2 , just high and low points are outside the previous one
They are both valid BEOVBs of equal strength. The key importance is the close of the BEOVB is below the previous Bar (candle).
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I am confused too with the BEOVBs and got caught in this one.
The 6thJune candle of USDJPY is or isn't a beovb....the close of this candle is lower than the previous bar....but UJ went up and up yesterday....
Thanks!
Are you talking about the Daily Usd/Jpy on 6/06/08? or another time frame?
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Hey, i was looking at that magnificent pin bar and looked at the 4 hr. The proper way to play it would be to wait until the break of the pin? which also would be a break of this trend line? after 00:00 right?
Also, where would the stop go. Tip of the nose?
Ive been trying to master trading just pins, on a demo, and wanted to see what other people think
Thanks for replying!
That is not a playable Pin Bar. It is in traffic of other bars and is not at a swing high or low. Check the daily time frame Usd/Cad 6/09/08 for a better looking Pin Bar.
You want to wait for the break of the PB and the stop loss would go on the top of the PB or the opposite side of your Price Action entry.
Not sure what "after 00:00" means.
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i just meant after the start of the new day. usually starts at 00:00 on my mt4.
Yes, the start of the new day would mean that the Daily 06/09/08 PB would be confirmed by its close. But what does that have to do with the PB you indicated on the 4 hour chart?
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Yes, the start of the new day would mean that the Daily 06/09/08 PB would be confirmed by its close. But what does that have to do with the PB you indicated on the 4 hour chart?
I just re-read what you wrote Liquid. I thought you were talking about the PB on the 4 hour chart. My bad.
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sorry, I tend to confuse people a lot. I was referring to the trend line that i drew. Thats why I supplied that pic.
No, it was me. I tend to read too fast sometimes.
It's a good approach to look at lower time frames once higher time frame Price Action has been confirmed. Once Price breaks the Daily Pin Bar (Usd/Cad) is my trigger to decide on an entry, be it on the break or retrace.
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I would suggest that when you are studying Price Action on the James16 Thread, that you remove all moving averages and indictor boxes. Here, we are just dealing with Price and we don't need that other stuff.
Very good Pin Bar you got there. Nice long nose, nice. But a true tradable Pin Bar needs to have the best location to really be valid. And the best location is at or should i say off swing Highs and swing Lows, depending on the time frame. Now your Pin Bar is not in a good location, so I would not trade it. There are other thing to consider as well, but this is a good start.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
There were a couple of posts with missing images due to server crashes or the like. I do remember #58 being one of them. It was discussed a long time ago and Jim couldn't remember what was posted. ...Forgivable when you consider how many charts he has gifted us.
I wouldn't be too worried what about missing out on something, as reading through the thread , most techniques are discussed and exampled numerous times.
,Bundy
On page 8, Post 111; Jim shows a chart of DBLHC on the Daily Eur/Jpy which doesn't prove successful (let's just say it was delay a few days)
On this chart he refers back to the chart on Post 58, page 4. The actual chart is on Post 59. Trust me on that,
I . . umm . . archived that chart and noted the page and post number. (archived is such a better word then copied.)
Anyway, Jim made an error on referring "everyone go back and look at post 58", he meant to say post "68", which is now post 69. It was post 68 back then, again confirming from my archives.
Post 69 shows a failed DBHLC on the 15 min and he explained ways to check higher time frames and so on.
Sheesh, i thought you were talking about me here.... the description was accurate. PA has changed the way i look at charts however i am still looking for a "system" that suits me. I was in the PF and i came out of it still looking for a "system".
On my PA trades i struggled with the lack of structure. Which pairs do i trade, which TF, what determines confluence, what about when i have conflicting confluence... what takes precedence? Is a trendline more powerfull than a 50 fib? How many trades can i have open at a time or should i be concerned about correlations? (not a mm question). What about news and fundamentals, as a technical analyzer should i try to learn more? Should i take PA against the trend or only with the trend? Which trend? Should i always risk 1% of my account on all open trades or should i develop expectations on which trade is a higher probability and commit more? This and so many other questions....
I respect Jim and all the contributors of this thread. I have alot of respect of you as well as you seem to be the package deal, able to pull everything together and make it look easy. Thank you for posting here even though you don't have to and could just stay in the PF. I as well as other people appreciate your work.
For me Jacko's system is attractive because it offers simplicity. One pair, one direction (only buys) one TF (or atleast nothing low) buy on dips and trail your stop. Can't get any easier. For me with only one pair to trade and only one direction i don't get enough action... (there are weeks between trades, maybe to simple?) so on to the the quest of system jumping... find something that i can trade on a day chart or higher that allows me to be somewhat agressive but not stupid. I don't want no holy grail, just something that is more than 50% accurate and gives me at least a couple of trades a week on average.
Yes i did see your recent post on trading the GBP/USD daily pins and i once again am demoing this. My experience with pins has not been that positive but i am still trying.
saskgui I understand your fustration. The hours of study, pouring over charts, looking at Price Action setups that are posted on this thread (after the fact) and saying to yourself "How did I miss that BEOVB on the Weekly, it's right there". But as you continue on, one day it will hit you. Not like ton of bricks more like you'll look at your charts or a posted chart on this thread and say "That DBHLC is not correct or that PB has so many conflunences around it I have to take." It'll hit you, but the study and practise has to be consistent. And if your like me, what makes it easier, is that it's a whole lot of fun.
Practise? How does one practise Price Action? Simply put, is that you physical make the trades on a demo account or on a mico or mini account. Reading and understanding Price Action is one thing, actually making a trade : entering, exiting, placing stops, etc., just seems to jell in the mind. You can read all about building a motorcycle, but until you physically get your hands dirty and using tools to actually put one together, you never really buildt one.
Practise on 4 hour charts and even the hourly charts. Look for PA with confluennce of trendlines, PPZ, Fib levels, Flags, etc., that support and do not support a trade. But always looking at the higher time frames. And you'll get my friend.
I would like to respond to raczekfx post because I feel that its appropriate as it relates to this post.
I am a Price Action guy and will always be one. I started a thread called the Daily Inside Bar System (DIBS). Which was provided by a credible trader named Peter Crowns. It is method of trading Price Action on the Hourly chart.
When I was reading Bemac thread I saw the word "Inside Bar" and said "Hey, that's Price Action" and study his method further. The thread is going very well and many people using this method have had positive results. But . . . . all we're really doing is practising Price Action on the hourly chart. We are still practising the method and with practise (as with anything in life) we'll get better and sharper.
I am thinking of starting another thread using the DIBS method on the 4 hour, Daily and Weekly. But that thread has already been established. It's called the James16 Chart Thread.
I may do it anyways because it would just be using Inside Bars. I'd like to see a thread just on Outside Bars and one on just Pin Bars. But that's just me.
Well said. Couldn't agree more. Just about word for word on what I was thinking too, RM.
.
Not to be argumentive, but I believe this setup has a high potential. I would wait for the break and place the stop loss above the 50% retrace or 61.8 fib.
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That's alright Jim, I agree it has potential. I'm just looking for trades that have the best chance of succeeding and I'm not inclined to start a new trade there with that PA for the same reasons RM said.
Understandable, my friend.
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Thanks bundy,
I learned a great deal from you, which I?m very thankful for!
@Jaroo: as bundy already said, I also agree that price at this location is a good potential setup by itself. It just didn?t give enough confirmation (for me personally) to take a trade (i.e. nice pin or beob right at the swing high)!
RM
I totally agree RM. I'm just giving a picture of what I see. Nothing wrong with waiting for the perfect setup.
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Thank you all for your answers! I didn't take the trade - had no intention to - but I got what I wanted: some other persons view of it and I learned a lot.
Diane
That trade is still pending in my book. Still waiting for the break. We'll have to wait and see.
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Part of my problem is not being able to reconcile Jacko's method with PA as they conflict and i am torn between which to choose.
Thx for the post. I loved the dibs thread (i found it some time ago) and i would love to trade it however the hourly Euro session is not easy to trade in North America. I tried to look at it as a 4 hour or daily IB method but for me that would totally change it into something different. What i loved about the original system was the MM approach, so many of those trades have small stop losses and you know pretty quick which will work and which don't. Yes you lose some and more at BE but the runners look juicy. To me a longer time frame would change alot as this is a breakout system traded at a active TF.
Choose both on demo. Have one set of Jacko trades and one with PA and see who wins. Have fun with it.
Stick to the Daily and Weelky time frames and look at as many pairs as you can. This helps in the practise mode (which I am always in.) Swing Highs/Lows, S/R levels, "Space", Fib levels, PA on higher time frames, etc., this checklist in your head will soon be second nature to you.
Then you'll catch a great PA setup and ride it for all its worth. This will build confidence and experience.
Maybe we'll see a chart of yours on this thread showing a DBHLC on the Weekly with a Pin Bar on the Monthly, and you'll say, "This puppy is going down". lol
Looking forward to seeing your charts in the future,
Jim
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APPOLOGY JAROO,
HELLO ROOM ...SORRY FOR THE POST, I DON'T MEAN TO OFFEND ANY BODY.PLEAASE JAROO ACCEPT MY APOLOGY....PLEASE IM VERY SORRY.PEACE
Apology excepted.
No one new here is stupid. We are all here to learn, study and grow in the business of trading. To help each other and learn from each other. This is the true spirit that Jim has brought to this thread. So, let's move on.
I'm sorry if I was a little rough on you in the PM I sent you. But I'm glad you responded.
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My first post on this great thread. I have a booklet compiled of most of the charts posted here. However, I haven't found an answer to this question please forgive me if I have missed the answer in this thread. I am trying to figure out if this pin has failed. There are three inside bars since. Should I cancel my long from the tip of the nose as of now? Thanks for any commentary.
As a general rule, the best situation is that the next bar (candle) breaks above/below the given Price Action, in this case, a Pin Bar. (check your booklet).
Conformation of a failed Price Action, (i.e. PB), a break of the opposite side of the intended direction. But I have seen on higher time frames that Price Action can be . . . let's say . . . delayed a few bars and work out just fine. But the key to it all is the break.
Now the Pin Bar (candle) you have shown on the Daily Gbp/Jpy needs to go through a quick check list.
Location? Not the best, kinda crowded.
Confluences? Close to a PPZ but far from trendlines.
Higher time frames PA? Nothing I can see that stands out but a spinning top on the Weekly, but that could go either way.
Trend direction and/or continuation? Trend has been in a uptrend on the Weekly and Monthly.
Just some thoughts,
Jim
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i thought i would start a new thread to post charts. my question is this and i am sure merlin can let me know the answer. i am not sure if i want to do this yet but how many of you would like me to actually post potential trades. the thing to remember is that two people can take an identical entry and one will lose and the other will win. the variables to trading are endless. anyway what does everyone think. jim
uummm . . . . this seems like an interesting thread. That James16 guy seems pretty informed from his other posts . . . and also helpful to other members.
Uummmm . . . let me read on . . .
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OMG!! thank you so much for your quick and thorough response. i'm struggling w/ pasting charts here and the best i can do for now is attach the file (which is not very clear); the cross-reference is to james16's post #3 and post #15 (the last circled example).
the gbpjpy chart is the problem i think i'm having chart too many ppz clusters.
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/ELIZAB%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG][IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/ELIZAB%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/IMG]
To post a chart:
If you?re a meta trader user just right click on the meta trader chart and go to ?Save As Picture?.
Then ?Select the image you would like to save:? Pick ?Active chart? at ?600 x 600 pixels? the click ?OK?
Save anywhere you want i.e. Desktop.
Then when you enter to post comments go down to ?Manage Attachments? click that.
Then click ?Browse? to find your pic you want to attach, i.e. Desktop.
Click the pic you want and hit ?Open?, Then hit ?Upload?.
Wait for it to upload then close the ?Manage Attachments? window. Then make sure you hit the ?Submit Reply? button that is under the ?Manage Attachments? button.
Done.
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good point..short answer..overbought. weekly is showing divergence from both stochs and rsi,both in overbought levels,and last weeks candle is a kind of eve star with a long body??not sure how to interpret this candle other than it looks bullish but the gap says look out for a retrace!??..help!!.
daily is also interesting with an eve star formation followed by an inside day on friday,also oversold.
1h however is showing bullish divergence with a double bottom in price,oversold.4h is warning af a short lived retracement(imo)when stochs fall rapidly but the price doesnt follow much.
plan of action?? will demo a short on the break of 144.20 or a failure of its new highs or buy a break of the last high.
ok got that of my chest, so could anybody who knows what theyre doin like to comment!!?? lol
You say its overbought, can I ask you . . to whom is it overbought ? Oversold on the Daily . . . . to who?
Sorry not big fan of the indicators. Divergence has its place (I guess), but I look at it as a misleading indication.
The Weekly chart is heading to the moon. But the Daily shows a 2 day Pin Bar (Bearish) and the DBHLC (Bearish) you pointed out on the 4 hour. We may see a some down side movement to the lower PPZ. We shall see.
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thank you jarroo ... and for all of your other very helpful posts.
Congratulation on finishing the thread.
You provided some great questions, which Mike inturn gave (as always) some great answers. A lot of great people on this thread.
You will find that having read the entire thread you will want to read it again. There is always some bits of info you may have missed or as you become more accustom to PA, re-reading certain section have a whole new meaning.
Looking forward to your comments and charts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hello jarroo,
Please comment on this 4hr EU pin....does it worth the short?
You tell me.
What does the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts tell you? Any PA worth noting?
S/R levels and PPZs. Where are they? How do they relate to current and past Price Action?
Trendlines, Fibs, etc., any confluences supporting (or not supporting) that 4 hour PB? Is that an ideal Pin Bar? Where's its location? Is at the best location? etc.
Do you think I got anywhere asking Jim, Mike, Daillist, raczek, Bundy, Seeking, etc., "is this worth a short?". I'm not trying to be rude here, quite the opposite. If I want to ask a question to these people and take some of their valuble time, I at least want to show I've done my home work.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
What does the Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts tell you? Any PA worth noting?
S/R levels and PPZs. Where are they? How do they relate to current and past Price Action?
Trendlines, Fibs, etc., any confluences supporting (or not supporting) that 4 hour PB? Is that an ideal Pin Bar? Where's its location? Is at the best location? etc.
Do you think I got anywhere asking Jim, Mike, Daillist, raczek, Bundy, Seeking, etc., "is this worth a short?". I'm not trying to be rude here, quite the opposite. If I want to ask a question to these people and take some of their valuble time, I at least want to show I've done my home work.
Re-reading this I hope it does not come off being disrespectful. Its not meant to be. I apoligise if it has. We are all here to learn.
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ok thanx again.
well heres the situation now,i did demo a successful short (short term) but assuming i was still in the trade would you ride this till the res. you pointed out or how would you manage this trade if you were short?? trading the setups is imo the easy part,for me its the management of them where i make the most mistakes.
p.s.by the way i assume your pointing to the fact that this looks to be long term investors here not just momentum traders??
Wow, setups are the easy part. Good for you g_j_. Managing to me is the fun part, take some off the table and let ride.
Yes, I would ride it to the PZZ and then look for Price Action to see if it continues down.
It's nice when PA agrees on different time frames.
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Finally moving my stop loss (on all positions) from below the Pins to just below my 1st entry, below the PPZ. Of course I have taken some off the table, it wouldn't be fun if I didn't.
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Just wanted to post this since the USDCHF dilemma was in discussion over on the J16 site as well.
From the site:
"I think the problem was there was no clarity in how to look at the chart.
If we can't see it, how can the guys pushing price around?
We've had a BUOB which formed with a close just above a s/r. So, okay, where can it go? To the next s/r zone. It did. What does s/r do? It rejects price.
It did, and we closed as a PB. Now, whether this was just a reaction of the s/r, or a genuine sign of reversal - how would anyone know?
The low of the PB was held in by the lower end s/r, the upside capped by the upper s/r we reacted from.
Price is "caged" in the middle and any trade here needs to be aware of that. It's these situations that often have very choppy action(I'm suffering due to this as well) and imho tend to end up with a pressured move either way eventually.
The safest bet may be to let it pan out, let the chips fall where they may and if a retest + setup (like say an IB) comes on top / below a just taken PPZ, go for that instead of trying to break the PPZ by sheer willpower ahead of time."
I could of course be absolutely wrong.
Chart:
Or you could be, of course, absoluely correct. Make sense to me as you clearly descripted. Thinking anything more then what you said would be over thinking the situation.
Thanks Seeking.
("Caged Price", I'm stealing that one. Oh no .. .someone forgot to lock the cage . . . Look out!!)
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we learnt confluence is important in price action. can i get some opinions on how tight the confluence should be? multiple s/r factors found w/in 2 pips? 3 pips? 10 pips? is it more of a range?
also, after how much (or how long) would you consider s/r having been breached creating momentum. let's say we're long, heading into some confluence of resistance ... at what point can i feel confident the resistance is now support?
thank you in advance for any help/insight.
Not sure what your asking, but the current trade I am in on the Usd/Jpy (if you have been following it) is worth a look on confluence.
This what I saw when I took the trade: Price Action (PBs and IB), PZZ and Trendlines all lining up nicely for confluence to support a long trade.
Not sure what your asking, but the current trade I am in on the Usd/Jpy (if you have been following it) is worth a look on confluence.
ya, i saw your usdjpy post earlier and the ppz makes a lot of sense and the areas you indicated as s/r. my questions relates to the specifics of creating those regions. perhaps i don't need to be this technical. is there confluence created by a cluster of fib lines that are close to each other (e.g. 183.27, 183.32, and let's say 183.35) or do i need to have confluence of fib points w/in a pip or 2 only? same w/ ppz -- earlier supported price at 183.24 and later resistance at 183.37 ... ppz? (these are just plucked from air as my question relates generally to any chart pattern, currency, etc.)
thanks for your help ... p.s. are you still riding the usdjpy long?
As Mr. Trend had mentioned, you want to zoom out and look for areas that Price supported and resisted on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly. The areas do not have to be perfect to the pip.
These are "Areas" or PP-"ZONES". That's why you may read " ...PPZ at the 108.00ish area." The "ish" area may be 10 to 40 pip. When Price Action occurs within and/or off these areas, the move can be powerful.
Yes, I'm still in the Usd/Jpy long trade. I been posting the trade in as real time as I can so that it's easy to follow. I, like many others, like seeing potential PA set-ups when they occur, not after the fact.
My stop loss has not changed since moving it from below the PBs. Still just below the PPZ at 105.70. Dark Orange lines are my entries.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Good post Seeking.
Just like all PA, I believe the location is the most important part. Not just the actual PA formation.
You can find Inside bars and Pin bars all the time. But if price has been going sideways and/or there's lots of traffic around, the PA setup is not as significant.
I think for most people new to PA, this point is very crucial to understand.
Tom
Well said money. Do you mind if I steal your post?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
As Mr. Trend had mentioned, you want to zoom out and look for areas that Price supported and resisted on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly. The areas do not have to be perfect to the pip.
These are "Areas" or PP-"ZONES". That's why you may read " ...PPZ at the 108.00ish area." The "ish" area may be 10 to 40 pip. When Price Action occurs within and/or off these areas, the move can be powerful.
Yes, I'm still in the Usd/Jpy long trade. I been posting the trade in as real time as I can so that it's easy to follow. I, like many others, like seeing potential PA set-ups when they occur, not after the fact.
My stop loss has not changed since moving it from below the PBs. Still just below the PPZ at 105.70. Dark Orange lines are my entries.
Stopped out.
I guess I was to quick to move my stop loss from below the PBs. I thought moving my stop loss below the PPZ was strong enough. I did bank some good pips off partial position from both entries.
Over all, I'm happy with this trade because I gave it a chance and still banked pips.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hope u guyz gained some pips over the last week
i was hoping to Discuss
IBs VS PBs
which one do u prefer and state why!
Here's a quick complete answer:
moneybags " . . the location is the most important part. Not just the actual PA formation. (Repeat)
You can find Inside bars and Pin bars all the time. But if price has been going sideways and/or there's lots of traffic around, the PA setup is not as significant."
Location, Confluences (PZZ, Trendlines,etc.) and higher time frame PA make all the difference then the actual PA formation.
I'll take a DBHLC at new Highs, off a PPZ, hanging on a trendline then a PB in traffic anytime.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I guess I was to quick to move my stop loss from below the PBs. I thought moving my stop loss below the PPZ was strong enough. I did bank some good pips off partial position from both entries.
Over all, I'm happy with this trade because I gave it a chance and still banked pips.
Jim
I hate when Mike (mbqb11) sees me hiding in the bushes.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
That was a worth while post. Thanks for the time you took developing it!
PA is easy to recognize to get in. So simple it is embarrassing. Getting out with a profit, that takes some skill, and more than that, the personal chops to not become your own enemy in the market!
95% of all entrants fail. There is a reason behind that.
I think what is the most interesting and helpful thing I learned from the J16Group is this: DO NOT LOSE MONEY. Sounds pretty obvious, but putting it in practice is pretty hard. Not intellectually, mind you...
Novice traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to maximize their profits.
Professional traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to reduce/minimize their risk and reduce losses.
(I never tire of reading those 2 sentences).
Working and practising on controlling/reducing risk is what we are really doing when we are trading. Master that approach and the profits will take care of themselves. (imo)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Novice traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to maximize their profits.
Professional traders continually monitor, analyze and alter their trades to reduce/minimize their risk and reduce losses.
(I never tire of reading those 2 sentences).
Working and practising on controlling/reducing risk is what we are really doing when we are trading. Master that approach and the profits will take care of themselves. (imo)
How does Price Action aid in controlling/reducing risk you ask? Beautifully.
Placing a stop loss above/below : PA formations, PPZ (S/R levels) and Confluences. (sorry can't post charts now)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
And to do this one must master themself!!!!!!
Its all in ones head.
As Henry Ford said. Weather you think you can or cant you are right...
Mastering one's self could take a life time. In trading, it just takes practice to have the ability to recognize an "A" trade from a "B" trade and having the patience to know difference.
Patience is hard. If it was easy, it wouldn't be a virtue.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You tell me this is anything less than awesome once you "get it".
Again there were no surprises here.
This is trading with price action.
Just fantastic Seeking!
This is called an "A" Price Action post. Meaning that you can study it and learn a hundred different things from it, when appling other PA situations.
Notice the PPZs that Seeking drew. (for those that are having trouble finding them). Look at them on the weekly and see how established they are way back in 2006. (My chart does not go show 2006)
These is just one gem . . . I'm still studying and learning from it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I did. It was a terrible, sloppy mess and zones were violated a lot due to all the thrashing down there.
But on the other hand, these levels, as you said, have been "used" for years and after watching price move through and react at some of these spots, you get at least a rough outline(i.e. I am fairly certain I could tell you about 10 minor GBPUSD levels if you woke me in the middle of night :P).
GBPUSD imho was recently one of the worst pairs to find a precise step-on-step behavior, but it's usually the terrible chop that comes before the next pop. And it's not like it was impossible(we've had a lot of great examples posted for GBPUSD setups)...it just was noisy at times.
As always it's knowing when to trade and when not to trade.
--
Some personal rambling:
We just hit 2.0150.
To think there are some fun-da-mental-ists who think there's no way on earth GBPUSD could have staying power above 2.0.
("can't see a bullish pair" / "cannot see $2 holding on it if it does break topside")
Or this morning I saw a headline flash by on BB that GB was doomed, because it's on the brink of recession.
If you want my personal opinion(and personal recommendation) - stay as far away from these "wild guessers" as possible and stick to what's real: your chart.
Trust price.
There's a good chance it'll do what it(price itself) says it will do rather than what others say it SHOULD do.
Me, I can't think of anything more decisive than a breakout.
The current 1h bar is 115 pips low-to-high in size.
Yes, what a terribly weak and shattered currency, no bullish pair in sight! :P
And instead of just going by other people's words, see for yourself what happens in price once 1.9970 or 2.0 IS retested.
I know what I'm gonna do if I see a bullish setup.
PPZ(s) do not like to color within the lines (think of a 2 year old) LOL
But they are clearly there. Areas where Price acted as support and resistence. They are not uniform or precise, as some would like them to be.
Just great work Seeking . . . .comments, insight, etc.
Thank you.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You have two novice traders entering a trade at the same time, same pair.
One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
Answer: Neither is profitable.
You have two professional traders in the same scenario. One enters long and the other enters short. Which one is profitable?
Answer: Both are profitable.
How can this be so? The answer: The Exits.
Many traders concentrate on where to enter and when to enter a trade, as well they should do and practise. But more time should be spent on where and when to exit a trade. Because that's where we make the money or lose it.
Mike(mbqb11) makes a strong point that shouldn't go by lightly. The PPZ(s) (S/R levels) are the key to the entries and the exits and/or trailing stops. The market will show you where to put these stops if you look a little closer.
Your first stop loss placement is below the Price Action that triggered your entry or if your PA setup is within a PZZ. Then it would lie below that level to reduce risk. Then just locate the PPZ(s) to trail your stops.
". . . look for PPZ(s) to place your stops." . . is Powerful statement.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
yeah i get the point thanks...i'll try to work upon these guidlines and keep you guys posted...
EDIT: here is the last Ej long i took that fell a victim of my poort stops, i got stopped out for +45 when it's on it's way to more than 200 pips now, a great move i totally underrated!
here is how i could have better managed the trade:
i added a few PPZ's and used them as stops as i note if i had used these in real time i might have been more successful,
stop 1 obviously is negitive just at the end of the nose of the pin bar on the close of which the trade was taken. stop 2 is just at abt at breakeven which was also a PPZ on which the pin bar occured. stop 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 are other PPZ's along which i would have moved my stop...have i got it right?
I can't speak for Mike. But they look perfect ghous.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Unless I'm missing something, that pin bar on the NZUSD seem good to me. It's a valid pinbar at an extreme low at a well defined resistance level. The only reason I am hesitant to take it is the very strong downtrend but...yeah...pinbars are reversal bars so it's still a go in my book. The next bar did follow through and broke the top of the bar even though it has pulled back but it still has not taken out the bar low.
I'm not sure how money management may have helped in this case since it only went for roughly 15 pips after triggering a buy entry before falling. I'm watching this one closely and seriously considering going long so any comments would be appreciated.
Looks like a no-brainer to me. Place the stop loss below the PB and let her go.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi guys!Just want to tank Jim and all of you for sharing and developing this brilliant and profitable method!
Мy question is what do you call an A(+), B trade? What are they characterestics and defenition? Thank you
ps excuse my mistakes and style : English is not my natural language.
with respect, Ermak
As you read the thread and go through the charts, the "A" trades have the best locations and best confluences of events. "B' trades may have a good confluence (i.e. resting on a trendline) but not in the best location. You will see many differences between an "A" and a "B" trade as you study the charts.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
whats your opinion about that pin on dax(gmt+1). bounced right of fib61.8. will play on break. Is it an A trade or B?
cant attach the image, buttons are innactivated
with respect
I don't have the dax on my charting platform. Sorry.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Things like these seem nice, but always remember that there is no shortcut.
The bars / formations on their own are only part of the story that the whole chart tells.
Three parts:
1 part Bars/Formation.
1 part Location.
1 part Confluences.
Am I missing a part besides Money Management?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Any comments on this one.... Bearish overbar ends after PPZ???
BEOB (or DBHLC) through a Trendline and PPZ. Break of this formation could prove more down side movement. A retrace also looks possible before and/or after the break.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
@Jarroo
I'd say that trend and larger timeframe setups can have quite an influence at times as well, but that's more me. Jim doesn't have much respect for the trend for example, he'll just take his pips as they come whereas Mike likes it just as well
I would put that under Confluences. Confluences can be a topic in and of itself. The more the merrier, how they act to support or not support a trade setup, etc. The discussion could be endless.
But, as you pointed out with PA formations, confluences is still only part of that high probability, "A trade" setup.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Would you say that when a Price Action set up fails its a good indication that Price is going the other way? Now I'm not saying this is an "A" trade (the PB 7-24-08) but it was close in my book. The nose was to small in hindsight and probably not enough space. Also, "A" trade don't fail. lol.
Just curious on your thoughts on a failed PA setup, the "B+" trades.
Jim
I am currently in the BEOB.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hi james... i'm newbie in forex... thanks for sharing your ideas and system... how about eur/usd today... is it continue down trend or bullish will coming? price moves in ranging since asia opens... thanks
Big news coming up in a few hours. I would wait until after that.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Just to run with Jim's mention of how Price reacts to certain levels in the past. Check out the Nzd/Usd in 2007. Current Price is 0.7286 the Low 0.7255 . (Daily chart)
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I discussed this very PB on an email yesterday. The PB itself did not fail, but went exactly where I would have expected it to go. It was a PB just below a PPZ, so the trade would be good for a couple of pips only - so it was not my cup of tea. Looking for a PB to break the PPZ, and banking on it is pretty risky.
See the attached screen shot for where I draw the PPZ - Look back to Sep of 2007 - and see why this is a good place for it.
Now have a look at the TBHLC (or is it an BEOB - your call) on 7-29. Right off of the PPZ. I put in another PPZ at 7250. Zoom out to see the reason. Since the PPZ is normally a place where price reacts strongly, can you guess where I took profit? (Congrats on spotting it! it is an A+ trade)
Thanks StoragePro. Well said.
I sometimes look to PA setups to break PPZs, which they do at times.
Following the areas of least resistence, with Price Action leading the way, is the way to go.
Thanks again,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i have a question about ur Nzd/Usd
its a DBLC entry but isn't there traffic just before the signal so is this an agressive entry?
If you are referring to the DBHLC (or BEOB) in green. Yes, it is in a little traffic and trading PA formations off swing Highs and Lows are more responsive.
um um um how do you do that with metatrader again?
To post a chart:
If you?re a meta trader user just right click on the meta trader chart and go to ?Save As Picture?.
Then ?Select the image you would like to save:? Pick ?Active chart? at ?600 x 600 pixels? the click ?OK?
Save anywhere you want i.e. Desktop.
Then when you enter to post comments go down to ?Manage Attachments? click that.
Then click ?Browse? to find your pic you want to attach, i.e. Desktop.
Click the pic you want and hit ?Open?, Then hit ?Upload?.
Wait for it to upload then close the ?Manage Attachments? window. Then make sure you hit the ?Submit Reply? button that is under the ?Manage Attachments? button.
Done.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
(Did I just say Price Action was "cute". I got to get out more.)
Price Action does work on the lower time frames (Hourly PB on the Usd/Jpy), but their strength and consistency is no match to the higher time frame PA. (Daily PB on Usd/Jpy).
That's why Jim, mike and others stress the point of trading PA on higher time frames.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Break of the 212.00 ppz with retrace and rejection with 4hr pin. First time back to the 150 ema. 365 first tentative tp
I saw this also.
Talk about a nice setup Hipster; 4 hour PB, off a strong PPZ and 150 EMA. Talk about a confluence of events! James would be proud of a setup like this.
But that Daily PB (the 800 pound Gorilla in the room) isn't going away.
Like KissFan, I liked the location of the Daily PB (although its Open and Close are not inside the preivous bar). It too was on PPZ and a trendline. But more importantly, on a higher time frame.
So maybe this 4 hour PB shows a retrace of the Daily PB. That happens all the time on higher time frames. Price went from 212.00ish to 210.25ish a bunch of times last month and in June.
I guess what I'm saying is that I wouldn't fault anyone for taking this trade. Sure, easy to say after the fact Jim, where were you when I entered smart a**?
I'm still learning as well and a failed set-up like this just tells me (screams to me) that higher time frame PA : Rules.
And that if a set-up like this 4 hour PB, with all of its strong confluences, fails. It is a strong indication that Price is going the other way.
Jim
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I was thinking the same thing Jarroo about the I Bar setup that is forming. Do we wait for the inside bar to form on both the daily and H4 charts before going long or pull the trigger when it's complete only on the H4?
Thanks,
JMC
One way of trading Price Action is establishing PZZs on the Weekly and Daily time frames and waiting until Price is in this area. Then looking at the 4 hour chart for PA to show the way that Price may move towards.
The caution to this, of course, is that if you have Bullish PA on the Daily and Weekly time frame and Bearish on the 4 hour, guess which one Rules? The higher time frame.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I was thinking the same thing Jarroo about the I Bar setup that is forming. Do we wait for the inside bar to form on both the daily and H4 charts before going long or pull the trigger when it's complete only on the H4?
Thanks,
JMC
I don't think I answered this right. Could you ask it again differently? Maybe with a chart?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
One thing I love about a trade I've been in for a long while is the luxury of exiting purely by stop hit. ( Unless there's a strong entry in the opposing direction.) One option if I think the run is over is to bring the stop really close rather than just hitting the close button there and then. If things continue on you're still in. Back test it.
.
Couple approaches. I like bundy's tighting up or hiding in the bushes of S/R level. I like your .8750 level, above that.
Or wait for bullish PA on the Daily, meaning wait for a Bullish PA formation to present itself and that's your exit signal.
Edit: I just said the same thing as bundy said "strong entry in the opposite direction" duh, on my part.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I'm out already with close to 45 pips profit. This has been my problem as Ghous has noted earlier. I feel that this pair can reach to 1.51, but my trading news mentality tells me that 50 pips is enough profit already. I'm kicking myself silly right now for maybe getting out too early. On the bright side, cause I use aggressive entry (ie. not waiting for break of pinbar), I was able to use tight stops, thus more size. Man...that was a good pin though with lots on confluence.
But still, I envy the seniors here who can get literally hundreds of profits in one trade.
The way they get 100s of pips is that wait for the Daily PB and then wait for the break.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I took a small buy at 208.90. That Price level has a nice history.
Yes, I'm waiting for the 4 hour potential Inside Bar and I'll take the break either way.
That 208.90 level proved itself again. The 4 hour IB broke to the downside which gave me a relatively small risk trade, IB was only 93 pips. Passing the 207.96 (bottom of PB of 7-16-08) without blinking an eye. (pun intended. ) 4 hour PA around Daily and Weekly PPZs can provide a low risk opportunity.
It is important to note that 4 hour Price Action is not as consistent or responsive as the higher time frames. Proving one's self on the Daily and Weekly charts, as Jim emphasizes, is a crucial study and exercise.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hello guys.
I'm curious, how many days do you hold D1 and W1 trades? 5 days? 15? 30 ? Do u know some average? Sometimes i take 50-100 pips and my closed trade make in few days another 100-200.. I'm so undisciplined and greedy! I will change it.
Wish you another another profitable week in this best business
Holding a trade or exiting a trade has no average. One should only look for Price Action and/or PPZs (S/R levels) to determine when and how to exit.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
That 208.90 level proved itself again. The 4 hour IB broke to the downside which gave me a relatively small risk trade, IB was only 93 pips. Passing the 207.96 (bottom of PB of 7-16-08) without blinking an eye. (pun intended. ) 4 hour PA around Daily and Weekly PPZs can provide a low risk opportunity.
It is important to note that 4 hour Price Action is not as consistent or responsive as the higher time frames. Proving one's self on the Daily and Weekly charts, as Jim emphasizes, is a crucial study and exercise.
I'm just hanging on. When she (Gbp/Jpy) gets moving, just stay out of her way. Blowing through PPZs like they are made of butter.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I only trade geppy, when I see absolute reliable pattern.
BTw she has just reversed, lets observe this one.
But that is no reversal. Don't be thinking this thing is turning around don't be fooled . . . . It's falling like a brick as I speak, nice.
When Price falls over 400 pips and then retraces 100 pips it is not a reversal.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It's been a while since I've been here but hope that Jim and all you guys are doing well.
I'm still faithfully trading the PA and making a living from it
Some big moves lately in the majors. I feel that Cable may present a good buying opportunity in the region of 1.8500 - 1.8600. I'll wait and see what the PA shows.
Tom
Good to see you back. You may not know me but I know your posts. Great stuff.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hi jarroo, you where right this morning, I was fooled, I better waited for
the daily.
I hasn?t have much time, I watched 30 sec on the chart, entered,
set SL and TP and go to work.
But I don?t lost much, other crosses gave me
Good work from you here
I got fooled a bit too, my friend. The 4 hour IB that broke to the upside was my signal to exit my position not to enter long. I did a late re-entry short on a small position when Price broke the bottom of the IB.
When Price is trending strong its not a bad decision to take Bullish PA in an uptrend and Bearish PA in a down trend.
If the chart didn't say "4H" in the upper left corner, I'd swear it was textbook DIBS trade on the hourly with an add-on.
To see and hear the thoughts of a more experienced trader on this method before the trades in my opinion is priceless, instead of post facts.
I do have to agree and disagree with fibbinarchi. The pre-analysis of Price Action set-ups is probably the most informative for me. Those that have seen some of my past charts, I tried to show entries in real time or as close to real time as possible. I have probably learned the most when I would post a chart, in real time with all of my confluences and reasons, and then to get comments and instructional advice as the trade unfolds.
Post analysis (charts) are valuable as well. How do you know what a successful set-up looks like if you never seen one before. lol.
A carefully study of these charts (esp. Jim, Mike, Seeking , Bundyraider and many others) one can learn tons of information that can be applied to their next PA set-up.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I was wondering what are your thoughts about GBP/USD daily?
I got mixed feelings about this one.
We got the pin bar ,and 1.8508 is previous support from weekly chart.Also after this drop we may be due for some retracements.
But there still siems to be a strong downtrend wich is also corelated with EUR. And there no signs of reversal on weekly.
All the best Chris .
My 2 pips.
I believe it has a high potential. Price kissed a very strong PPZ around the 1.8500ish level. Definitely on the watch list.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks for your great chart and explaination. Now I follow your thread day by day.
Hope you don't mind asking a question, The problem here is how to define PPZ, The definition I learned from Jarooo is the area right below the ppz box you draw on your chart. draw a box around bars which have same high/low. If the definition of PPZ is arbitray, it will cause confusion.
Quote:
James16:
a pivot zone can vary in size of pips depending on time frame and whether or not it is located very near a big round number (a lot are). it can be a very small range or a larger one but it gives you a great way to predict price movement whether your entering or managing a trade.
And guess where I got the defintion from . . James16 . . lol.
Let me illustrate this from Jim's point of veiw and he can tell me if I'm off track or not.
PivotPointZones are made up of Support and Resistence levels. S/R levels can come together and be on top of each other and be very tight as Jim has shown a few posts back. Or they can be wide in range.
The area between the Sup and Res levels is the PPZ.
Let's look at the Usd/Jpy prior to the up move through Resistence. An obvious Res. level. (Chart 1)
Then Price moved up and up and then down which created a Support level. This is what Jim is pointing out. (Chart 2)
This area between the Sup and Res is the PPZ. (Chart 3)
Now this is where the fun part comes into play and it requires participation on your part.
Put the horizon lines on your Daily chart the same as mine. At the 109.09-.10 level and the 108.39-.40 level. (click off the "autoscroll") And go back in time . . . 2008, 2007, 2005, 2004, 2000 and even back 1998.
Cool stuff.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey Jaroo,
Thank you for your explanation on how to define a PPZ. I notice on your recent charts (about the pb on GU), there are lines which I take are your PPZs. Can you elaborate on that? I mean I know that you've given an example earlier on UJ. I would appreciate if you can show more examples on how to draw a PPZ. Or perhaps you can point me to your posts that talks about PPZ and how to identify them in details. Thanks.
Regards,
Sure y.c
I like to start on the Weekly chart and fine tune the PPZs on the Daily chart.
What we look for are the tight PPZs, where S/R levels are on top of each.
Since Price has fallen so far south we can't find any good PPZs in 2008 and 2007. So we look at 2006 and there are many good ones.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I am confused with the term PivotPointZones - as one will think it is a standard Pivot Point (PP, S1, S2, S3, R1, R2 and R3). The way you define PPZ is purely based on S/R levels, and the way you define S/R is based on major swing high/low which could be very subjective and requires some good expriences. Pls advise!
Regards,
Kim
Ok.
Or its called the PivotPriceZones.
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Hey Jaroo,
Thank you for your explanation on how to define a PPZ. I notice on your recent charts (about the pb on GU), there are lines which I take are your PPZs. Can you elaborate on that? I mean I know that you've given an example earlier on UJ. I would appreciate if you can show more examples on how to draw a PPZ. Or perhaps you can point me to your posts that talks about PPZ and how to identify them in details. Thanks.
Regards,
Gbu/Usd seems to be deciding where to go on this PPZ in 2006. My thinking is the current PB will help it decide.
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Thanks for getting back to me so quick Jarroo. Your charts are a real eye opener for me. The first thing I notice is that your PPZ appears to be tighter than if I would've taken the charts and draw them myself. You didn't exactly pick the highest or lowest shadows of the S/R. You seem to know the exact price where it reacts the most and draw a horizontal line through it. Do you go to lower TFs to find that out?
Also I attached your chart with a question that I hope you can clear it out for me. And please comment on my recent trade. Was that a valid PPZ by this forum's definition?
Regards,
The tighter the PPZ the better. I will fine tune them even more on the 4 hour chart but mainly just on the Daily.
Recent trade: Yes, the area or level where Res turned into Sup.
Yes, that is considered support. I just didn't draw a PPZ in that that area. Yet.
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Just one quick question on your recent comment...PPZ must be first tested to be considered valid, is that a correct statement? Or just because price bounced at that level once, one can already assume that's a PPZ?
and on the usd/cad, that's on the 4hr chart.
PPZs are already established and Price will react to them.
Start with the Weekly on the Cad.
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Aah...thank you. So much clearer now. Thanks for all the charts. They'll make an excellence reference for me now.
If you don't mind me asking you about your trade method...would you take a PB on the PPZ alone, or would you require some other confluence such as fibs retracement on the big picture? Because I notice another senior here, Ghous. If I'm not mistaken, he took a short on gbp/jpy based on PA and MACD divergence, but he didn't enter then. He waited until the price broke a diagonal trend, then he entered.
The more confluences the merrier. Location, PPZ, Trendlines, Fibs, PA on higher time frames, etc., it all makes up the "A" trade set-up we are looking for.
PPZ and Price Action alone can be a powerful thing through practise. But if there happens to be a divergence indication that agrees with the direction then that just gives the entry more confidence and more wieght to the decision.
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Exactly Jarroo, you won't make a bad professor out of yourself? ever tried a Phd course teahings in forex?
to Y Caesar...
the trade i took on Gj was mainly because of the strong divergence followed by the trendline break. there was'nt much of PA indication on my charts atleast but the divergence as Jarroo said added a lot of weight to my trade and made me take the descion.
Thanks gh.
But there was clear Inside Bar off PPZ, my friend. Nice Trade.
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BUOB (or 3 day pin?) off of 365 EMA on EURUSD (failed pins previously highlighted on the 12th...think they were closer to neutral bars. funny how they look more like pins when you haven't traded in a week or two ) Excuse the messy fibs.
Pin off of support, 50% retrace of latest big move, and 365 EMA on EURJPY (failed pin previously, guess she wasn't ready just yet). Scared of it staying inside the pennant formation that formed over the past year though, marked by descending trend line.
Lots of stuff compressing into pennant formations over the last few days. If there are more pairs doing it than not, you would think maybe to stay out of the market. Guess that's what demo trading is for!
Eur/Usd.
Yes its both, a BUOB and a 3 day PB.
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I have different levels where I will take partial stop losses. 161.84, 161.52 and 160.79.
Ideally the best placement for a stop loss is just below the nose of the PB.
I took it on the chin.
Price hit my 1st stop (161.84)and then my 2nd (161.52). Then went up and came down and hit 161.52 again which was my 3rd and final stop out. Life goes on.
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Thank you for posting your losing trade. A few days ago I failed to take several trades because it contradicted a senior's trader here. This never happened to me before. But as I get myself immerse with the systems here, I couldn't help but take every seniors' words here into consideration. Your losing trade shows that even seniors here get into "bad" standard deviation, as Mark Douglas says.
We look for high probability trades, apply proper money management and position size. We then manage our trades to keep losses to a minimum, yet allowing for our trade to run.
Through practise comes experience. Through experience comes some success. Through successes comes confidence. Through confidence comes a consistent winning attitude. That grows after every trade.
More so after a losing trade.
But as we all know, no one knows where Price will go. That's why we are here and that's why we practise.
Jim
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Profit taken on 2/3rds of position and, for those who wonder about trade management still, a good place to move the stop (in this case) is to below yesterdays low @ 1.4669 (or to break even if you prefer, but depending on where you would have got in, that could be too close for now. The trade would have no room to breath)
In my opinion it's too early to move any closer. The whole idea is to take some profit and pay for a longer term trade.
Maybe next time the first 'take-profit' point will be bigger. lol
Now you keep watching daily bars around closing time. Trailing behind support lines when available.
.
How fun is this!!!
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Thanks Jarroo for sharing this trade with us. Its rare that seniors share their losing trades with newbies and reinforces the belief that its ok to loose as long as you have your MM in place.
It's never "ok" to lose, but MM is there for that reason. I learn more from my losses then my winning trades (as many have said). These lessons I want very few of.
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how important do you find these to be Jarroo, qualt to a strong ppz or what??
The longer term emas act as S/R when Price is around them. I wouldn't equate them to PPZs. But combine them with other confluences (like PPZs) and they can add to support to a given trade.
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amongst some nice analysis and great posts is another Au trade i took yesterday...
with the strenghth Eu is showing recently i had a close eye on other pairs for any other advantages i could extract from the weak dollar, not long after i found a nice opportunity...
again the trade was a bit early, but i found enough of a confirmation from the preceeding cadnles, and guess what i see a nice BuOB building up as the close of the daily candle on my feed approaches (5 hours to go).
Regards,
Ghous.
Nothing wrong with taking a IB off a PPZ ghous. Nicely done.
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Patience fits in there somewhere too. Somewhere between experience and the winning attitude
Absolutely.
Probably fits in there with everything.
Patience with learning the material and practising. (it doesn't happen over night)
Patience with knowing that success will come. (sometimes more later then sooner)
Patience with knowing that one day it will finally "Click". And the stresses of trading begins to fade.
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You're welcome here if you intend to be constructive and respectful, but from the get go you have criticised a well respected guy around here , and in his own thread! ...What would you expect if the same had happend to you?
It's easy for anyone to represent anyone else for the purpose of disrupting a forum. We call them 'Trolls' and all you've done so far is create doubt about your true identity or intentions.
One hellava marketing plan.
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Damn, I got faked out, after being burned by the last two pins on the EURJPY and didn't get in on the Pin that finally worked. That is an emotional mistake.
For those who did take the trade, and took the trade on the break, where did you get in...
1 Pip above the Daily Pin bar.
10 Pips above the Daily Pin bar.
A certain % of pips compared to the size of the Pin bar above the pin bar.
Thank you!
Price was moving pretty strong when it broke the top PB. I got in right at 162.18.
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I took 1/3 off at the same (1st) level as indicated on your chart, Jaroo. 2nd level is similar too (mine is a bit higher). But I think this is could be a "keeper" for a few days at least, if not weeks...
Nice job 007.
I took 1/2 off and move to b/e. Absolutely, could be a keeper. Weekly PB will be fun to watch next week.
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I can't unfortunately, haven't quite figured that out but it actually may be a bullish sign more than a bearish one because it is a blue candle followed by a full white longer one, so its more bull than bear
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Does this kind of a setup take up some plcae in James 16's grand book of PA indications??
usd/cad is in a very nice place at the moment, it seems to have nicely bounced over a very long term resistance line, could this PA indication (if it is...) make the case any stronger??
Or Double Bar Low With a Not So High Close ( DBLWaNSHC)
Ok, I'm just kidding.
Jim would view this as Two Bar Low (TBL also Two Bar High) In a strong trend would be a good breakout continuation level. Even stronger is a 3 Bar Low or 4 Bar Low.
Another setup for next week. Two day pin bar (as far as I know) for EUR/USD at weekly PPZ. Would the correct move be to put sell stop 10 pips or so below the first bar's low (bullish one)? I'm assuming this is correct but I don't know too much about 2 day pins. I'm in favor of shorting this pair over some others (GBP, JPY) because it looks like there's not much support until 1.44. Opinions are always welcome, I'm still learning this.
That's off a rather large PPZone on the Weekly. Tighter PPZ are more responsive.
Your indicating the RESistence level on your chart.
(Chart 2)
2 bars (candles) Pin Bars look like this. (2 Day PB on Oil Daily). Noitce that 1st candle's Open and the 2nd candle's Close has to be within the previous two candles.
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Ghous, you mentioned on one of yousr charts DBLLC, but in that case the close (green bar) was higher that the close of the previous bar. So, that would make it DBLHC...
That's not a DBLHC . . lol . . .The Close is not Higher the prevoius bar (candle). Its a TBL.
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this short is definitely worth watching ... price has already closed below a key area of historical support at 8528 and as you said, is fighting this round number support area here at 8500; i'm going to wait for a further test and breach here and jump on board (at 8470-ish) ... (and w/ my MM firmly in place) ... if it works, the RR is really nice.
8470 sounds good. I thinking a retrace to 8600 1st.
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well there is a Doji ..which to me doesnt mean much
the reason i took it is
1)BIg divergence
2)Nice ressistance line @ weekly,daily,u name it
3)the ressistance number is @ a round number(anything that ends with .00)
1.1000
4)there is a double top
so i palced my sell stop @1.0985
what do u think guys?
does anyone knows anyother program that i can play(insert circles/words/lines) with my chats than paint brush(coz it sucks )
raczekfx would be proud.
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this is what i was thinking about ... i've also read where it's not invalidated until it busts out the other end. i wonder if there is a definitive answer on this. i've been setting 24 hour time stops on my orders so far ... or maybe they could be played both ways. let me know what you think. thanks always for all your help and great posts.
Coming from Mike it says alot. It is obvious that if a PA set-up, no matter the time frame, is not trigger in the next bar then the probability of that trade is reduced. Not eliminated, but reduced. I've been looking at past set-ups and that seems to be the case. And Mike just helped confim it.
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I was watching the same chart too. I was hoping to get in at 38 or 50 retracement, but no chance.
Can I ask you why you sell stop at 8485? Do you treat this particular signal as you would a PB break out? (ie. several pips above the PB's high and put a buy stop)
I always like when Price heads toward a major PPZ. 1.8500 on the Gbp/Usd is a huge PPZ check the monthly chart. I saw this Inside Bar on the 4 hour chart sitting on that level and decided to play it either way with a 10-15 pip on both sides as a "buffer". I took 59 pips on half and put the other half stop loss at 1.8515.
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Both Tom DeMark and Martin Pring said that after a valid "signal" (PA or a TL breakout), the price could continue moving in the "wrong" direction for 3-5 bars (and they are talking about daily charts...)
Well like I said, it doesn't eliminated the potential trade it just reduces the probability of success.
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Also please take a look at the attached chart. It's a possible PB forming in 4 hr in usd/jpy. Whether or not the price at the close of hour confirm it's a PB or not (for argument sake let's say it's a PB). What I'm trying to say, the horizontal line that I drew, would you consider that as a valid PPZ on the 4hr chart?
Before we go to the 4 hour chart let's see what the Weekly and Daily look like.
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All I can say is thank you for showing me your systematical approach for reminding me to check out the longer TF. I know that at the end of the day, the longer TF rules over the smaller TF. I used to think that whenever I look at a chart, let's say at this instance a 4hr chart, the S/R that matter are already shown on that TF. So looking back at your posted longer TF charts, I realize that the higher probabilities of a trade to be successful would be if the smaller TF signals form in the longer TF PPZ.
And I have to say the way you took that gbp/usd breakdown trade was just beautiful
Just takes practise. Looking for PA set-ups off higher time frame PPZs is the way to go. Because Higher Time Frames RULE!
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Hi Mike, first of all I want to thank you for all your efforts to help us and I really like your comments and looking to learn something from you whenever you post something. However, about the E/J pin bars i have question. I agree with you regarding the first one not being broken, maybe the second one has small nose, but as I see the third one has very nice long nose, it was in location, swing low and after very big drop and has all the space. Why the hell then is it failed? Just simple answer, because it does not have work everytime. By the way I took the pin into my live account, because i thought it was worth the risk. Can you please show a few example where there is no traffic? I ask this question because as I said, I know you are great trader and can learn something from you. By the way I have already watched your video about pin bars three times. Thats why this traffic issue has confussed me, because all I can see was it was after big drop, no sideways markets and created well space. Thanks....
Cheers,
Nuriksari
Third one didn't fail. I caught some pips at the 163.00ish level.
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You obviously have a great talent capturing moves like that.
I only post my examples because I do not think this is as dirt simple as Jim says...other Jim :-)
The only problem for average Joe in taking profits so early is that one full stop out will hit them hard. In this example approx 3 wins would be needed to pay for one stop out if taking profits so early.
Anyone else play the 5min - 30min stuff? I would think after 2-3 years of this thread someone else would be able to trade a shorter time frame.
I have. But have found that the Daily and Weekly PA is more reliable, consistent, more responsive, less stressful, more profitable and . . oh yeah . . . more profitable.
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If you trade the same risk % per trade don't see how a trade that lasts a few days can make more then a trade that lasts a few min. Just wanted to see if anyone else can do the 5min stuff or less but it seems most are stuck on the 4hr / daily / weekly stuff and that's fine too as long as you can lock in some profits who cares. Also PA is PA if you can read a 4hr it's the same as a 5min or a 1min chart just happens faster but I would not say it has a higher winning rate as long as you don't take dumb trades and use a few time frames to line it up.
I think the premise of your question is flawed. PA on higher time frames can have the consistency of a hard metal, where the PA on the 1min/5min time frames can have the consistency of soup.
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I highly doubt Jarroo trades anything that isnt on a LIVE account. ALthough correct me if I am wrong Jarroo
Majority of the time, yes. I will adjust my percent (Small, Medium or Full) depending on the probability I feel the trade dictates. These potential gap fill trades are at medium position.
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Majority of the time, yes. I will adjust my percent (Small, Medium or Full) depending on the probability I feel the trade dictates. These potential gap fill trades are at medium position.
Stopped out of the Usd/Gbp -32 pips. Usd/Chf closed for 48 pips. Still in Gbp/Jpy. Sorry Seeking I couldn't resist.
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Stopped out of the Gbp/Jpy -65 pips. (near bottom of PB)
Conclusion: In a strong trending market (recent Usd/Gbp & Gbp/Jpy) filling the gap against the trend; not good. In a ranging market (Usd/Chf & Usd/Jpy) more probability that the gap will be filled. imo
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Jarroo, in the last month GU was dropping like crazy, making lower highs and lower lows, I only use daily candles in my analysis and I couldn?t spot a nice setup to get in short, not a double bar low or and outside candle that would get me a nice entry point, I had a feeling it was going lower and lower but I didnt know when to enter, what do you do in those cases, do you resort to 4hr TF?? GU has tanked like 2000 pips, did you grab any? if so, how??
if there were in deed daily setups, please show?m to me.
Hey judith. Great question.
What do you do in a strong trending market where there is no obvious signs of Price Action to get you in?
My solution is to drop down to the 8 hour and 4 hour time frames. Look for PA at S/R levels (PPZs) just like higher time frames.
The move down on GU has been so strong and long that you have to look for PPZs at 2006/2007 levels. Trust me, Price remembers these levels.
I can't post a chart now, but if you look at BEOBs and played only the bottom breaks on Inside Bars, GU has been very good to you last month.
Aust 7th (4 hour) had a BEOB followed by some IBs was a great trade I took last month.
Only playing Bullish PA in a uptrend, Bearish PA in a down trend when the trend is strong is the best and easiest way to trade.
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Aud is dead, I think we're going to see 8000 soon.
I would have to agree with you. But I thought we would get a retrace up from the last move down. My s/l is just below the bottom of the 1st PB. And I will stay with it till the bitter end.
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We're at a main PPZ, which has been tested once since the GDP, if that gives it's around 8270/80 then 8100 is in the cards. Let's see what PA tells us as usual.
I would say the downtrend is pretty strong.
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Are you now (in general) trading more DIBS or PBs (or other PAs or smth else altogether...)? Thanks!
I'm always looking for PA set-ups on higher time frames, but as you know, the "A" trades don't come by everyday.
When I'm available, I'm looking for DIBS (and 4 hour) set-ups with pairs that are trending strong. Like the Euro, Cable and Gbp/Jpy. Only taking the bottom breaks.
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Unless I'm reading something wrong this is as good a daily pinbar as you're ever going to get. It bounced from a PPZ, it's at an extreme low and there's also a bit of MACD divergence. The big problem is the strong downtrend that has been killing pinbars for the past few weeks so I am very reluctant to trade it.
It would be interesting to hear the views of the senior guys on this one and also the daily pinbar on the USCHF.
A butter knife is still a knife. Ouch.
I would obviously wait for the break of the PB and see if it retraces to the left eye level.
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break, retrace, and then wait for the break or get in on the retrace? sorry, this always mixes me up ... thanks jarroo.
The PB is not validated until it breaks. So, a Pin bar is not a Pin Bar until it breaks. You can enter before the break (at a retrace to the left eye) but its risky.
After it breaks the top, we then look for a possible retrace.
Edit: Hey, I just said what Mike said. Cool.
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I read on one of the recent posts I think re daily pins you place yr stop at the opposite end of that bar. For DIBS I recall P.C. saying he put his stop on other side of the dib, do you do the same?
Regarding 4hr price action do you place your stop based on the same basis, that is at the other end of the price action bar in that time frame? If so is this a golden rule, set in concrete, or are there times when you would set the stop in a different position? If so where, when and why. Thanks
The ideal location of all Price Action stop losses is above or below the given PA set-up.
However, if a strong fib level or a strong S/R level (preferablely a PPZ) one can place a stop loss above or below this level which may reduce your risk.
Example: BEOB currently on the Usd/Cad Daily chart.
Price broke this BEOB. On the break, one would (ideally) place their s/l above the top of this formation (above 1.0775). But there is a Resistence level at 1.0722 . One could place their s/l there and reduce the risk.
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Not a hero, just playing knowing what I am going up against. I knew on that trade it was higher risk and if I went -10 I had several hours to turn that to +10, if that was the 1st trade and it was past 2:00pm I would of passed on it. Also going back looking at the charts it seems that 90% of the PB's people are going with are against the trend, maybe that is why people are having a problem in the past few months due to the market trending. Here is a 4hr chart taking ALL PB's that are with the trend, seems a lot easier to me then trying to catch them tops / bottoms
Well said.
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I would like to apologize for my childish angry reaction from yesterday. Of course you guys dont owe me anything, you are just trying to help and that is what makes this thread great.
I started trading PA about 2 months ago, focusing only on PBs. I traded them with a small real account, because I dont believe in demo trading. It is not the loss of a few dollars per PB which upsets me, but the obvious failure of the strategy I am using. I am probably missing something here or mixing up things, but I arrived at the conclusion that good looking PBs, at important swings and PPZ dont necessarily work better than other PBs. Take for example the PB on GU, at the beginning of August, which James pointed out. Its not at a swing high and its in traffic. Still...it worked.
Have to revise my knowledge about PA. Thank you James for offering to help and for posting these great charts. And to Jaroo for his great simple cool answer.
Thanks my friend (we are all friends here. )
The truth is, I've been right where you are right now. I just didn't post it on the Thread.
I know the feeling of furstration and saying " F-this! What hell going on. I give up. It's not for me. @#%^&%$#". This is a turning point where others leave this business and you preservere.
Then you step back. Go to bed early. Put it to the girlfriend a little harder then usual (lol). And take a breathe.
Then get back at it. Knowing you are gaining experience from times like these. Your that much closer to where you want to be.
Jim
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Thanks again Jarroo. You are one of the greatest. I especially appreciate you for posting your PA trades live and for continuing the great DIBS thread.
I will follow your advice, take a breathe and give it another try to PA this weekend, re-read all the stuff I have and review my trading style. Temporarily no more GF though, just broke up coz the relationship was going like the euro...down down down.
That's the spirit.
You got to be Tenacious with a capital "T" in this business. Because in the beginning you have more losers then winners. (the winners were lucky. lol)
Er go, the demo account.
Soon the wins and losses will balance out. Then the wins will start gaining in number while the losses get smaller. Funny thing is that this started happening when I cut my trades per month to about 10-12 from 500. lol.
You'll get there. It just takes time and practise.
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I love high probability trades. Price Action RULES.
4 hour 2 bar combination Pin Bar or an 8 hour PB.
Yes I know there is a big fat Pin Bar on the Weekly chart, but the way things have been going with PBs lately a PB with the trend and towards the Gap prove to be a very successful trade this morning.
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Hey Jaroo here is a 4 hour Euro. I'm in short off a 5 min bear flag. Also it might be presumtiouse of me but I think you would like to look at another trade I took tonight. The kiwi hit a good ppz then made a dblhDBHLC..hopefully low close on the 4 hour . Hit me back up if you need anymore charts just tell me time frame etc.
Jason
I believe your referring to the New Zealand. Yes that's a Double Bar High Lower Close off a PPZ and running into a PPZ. What can break through a PPZ? I would only wait for Good 'Ole Price Action to break through. Good eye.
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Yes I know there is a big fat Pin Bar on the Weekly chart, but the way things have been going with PBs lately a PB with the trend and towards the Gap prove to be a very successful trade this morning.
For those that asked. Period converter.
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what i want to know is about double pins. I still confuse with they. Some more explanation? Thansk in advance
It's not a "double Pin Bar", it's 2 or more bars that when combined together form a familiar looking Price Action formation. (Sorry, can't post a chart).
I'm new to forex and demoing for 3 months like James teaches. When I pull the trigger it feels just the same as when I trade real money. My chest gets tight and my palms sweat sometimes. Other times I see it and pull the trigger no problem. Any tricks to overcome the fear much appecaited.
Jason
Practise, practise, practise.
Through countless times of seeing set-ups and placing your stops and not "fearing" that if your stop loss is hit, it's not the end of the world. Fine tuning your set-ups (which develops over time) high probability trades will look joyful instead of fearful.
Best analogy I can make is the 1st year doctor that faints at the sight of blood and then (over time) becomes a 1st class surgeon.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi jarroo,
I am new to this thread. Reading from the 1st post and now up to page 140. I can't get this period converter work, could u pls guide me a bit?I already put the file in experts/indicator. When i open it, what should I do with the setting?
And also what are "traffic" and "ppz"?
Thanks in advance
When you apply the period converter to your chart, go to inputs,click on "PeriodMultipler" and indicate the number you want to convert.
Ex. go to the Daily, apply the peridcon and got to inputs. Then go to "PeriodMultipler" and put "2" for two Day chart.
Then got to File and click on "Open Offline". Look for your selected time frame, ie. GBP/JPY 2D. Click on Open and apply your template. Done.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You should be watching and getting a feel for which formations are strong ones too.
You can technically have a 2 day pin, but that doesn't automatically make it a signal.
Don't expect to trade any indicators' signals blindly.
I see set ups all the time and take probably %10 of them. (guessing the percentage there, but it tells you how many don't make the grade to me!)
I guess, what I'm saying is , regarding any indicators reliability, you should have the skills to identify these formations with the naked eye as well (and even primarily) ...If you don't then there's a good chance you will also be shot gunning your trades in the mean time. i.e. any ole' pin.
...Just a heads up man.
.
Excellent point as always Sir Bundy.
Combination bars, especially on higher times frames, can give you a look at Price Action that others (the market) may not see.
More importantly, the rules (guidelines) still apply when looking for tradable Price Action set-ups on combination Bars. Location, PPZs, Fibs and other confluences to support a given PA trade.
Period coverter is more of a "Identifier" and not an Indicator. I just chops up Price differently then what we are use too. (Hourly, 4 hour, Daily etc.) An important tool in the Price Action toolbox. imo
And I agree with Bundy that over time and study that these formations, along with confluences, will begin to pop out at you with just your eye balls.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
pullback pin bars in a trend (or consolidation) to large round numbers with pivot zone/fib confluence can open the door to success in this business if you never learn another thing. this is the core of how i daytrade the mini dow/ns/sp. ive said it a thousand times but it really is just a question of practice. your a valued poster here ryan so dont let the BS get to you.
jim
Rynmcd:
Your Price Action method has just been given credibility. I look forward to seeing more of your charts.
Thanks,
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This Daily Pin Bar is a great example of a high probabilty trade. And I'm sure Ryanmcd would agree(he has been trying to drive this point home to us on the 5min chart.) Price Action with the trend just makes sense on so many levels.
Another good sign is that Price broke hard and fast on the next Bar. This is a good sign with any PA set-up.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I took the same one, I would like to ask you some questions about management, usually i do it this way.
enter trade with 3 parts/lots, SL at opposite end of PB
take 1 lot out at *38% of PB, leave SL the same
take 2nd lot out at *1:1, move SL to BE
trail 3rd SL using PA
*if there are major S/R areas above/below my targets I move them acordingly
that means that right now I'm negative waiting for 2 lots to hit my SL, turning this winner a loser, I mean...the trade is not over yet, but in case it goes up, what would you have recomended I did, maybe I just have to take it in the chin and move on.
Here's how I managed this Euro trade from last week. Sorry I couldn't post charts at the time. I really don't like posting trades without charts to show the reasons behind it. But this was a very high probability trade.
The Daily Pin Bar of 9-18-08 with the trend entered after the break 1.4270.
Price broke on the next bar , hard and fast which is a great sign that Price will continue.(This is a high qualifier for all PA set-ups).
On my mind is the Support level at 1.4070ish, Weekly Pin Bar (in the opposite direction) and the Daily Trendline.
I then move down to the 4 hour charts and see if any PA formations ( and S/R levels) will give me a hint if this short off the PB will continue. Price runs into the Daily trendline and possible reverse spinning top at that trendline.
I take half off for 83 pips (1.4187) and move my stoploss to break even. Price moves up and stops me out on the other half at break even.
I try to never let a winner turn in to a loser. If Price moved down 60 pips and then started heading back to my entry I would probably have closed the trade at 0 to -10 pips. Even if it goes back in my direction right after I close the trade and it has done this many times. lol. But to has also kept me out a losses that would have run a lot larger.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
ok, so you got 1/2 your position at 1/3 your risk aprox, which made it 1/6 R/R (I think you scale out your SL though). So you seldom get 2% SL'ed
do you have any strict rules about this R/R thing?
Well I guess my question is, do you build your equity up by adding little chuncks of less than 1% and rarelly losing?
it's all in my brain but I just can't put it in words. I hope you understand what Im trying to say.
I don't have strict rules for R/R on Price Action set-ups. I do apply the R/R rules on a DIBS trade.
I build my equity up by limiting my losses and letting my trades run.
Yeah, I know, sounds simple but hard to do. But I gotten to a point where if Price is not moving in my direction after a set-up is triggered: I'm out.
Meaning if I can't move to break even or be in a "free trade" after a few bars; be it Daily Bars, 4 hour Bars or 1 hour Bars, I'll close the trade and take a small loss or a small gain.
My goal when entering a trade is this: position yourself or scale out to where you will not have a loss and still be in the trade (i.e, DIBS half at 1:1 or moving to break even.)
On some Weekly or Daily PA set-ups I'll position my stop losses to scale out of a failing trade but this is rare event and only if I feel the PA set-up is A++.
I concentrate on how I can reduce or eliminate my potential loss once a trade is triggered.
Sure, I look at target areas where Price my be heading but if I'm locked in for 30 pips and there is no way that I will lose, it makes life a lot easier.
I think I might have came close to answering your question. (Equity Building)
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jaroo, I admire your concise style and simple wisdom. One could write (or read) 1000-page books on MM, but your post summarized key principles in a nice and easy-to-understand/remember/use way. Take care of your losses and the winners will take care of themselves (not really, as you do have to give the winner a chance too ). Well done! Thanks a lot!
There is an old trading saying: "I am right or I am out". That's how PA should be applied. PA gives a precise entry point; if the price doesn't move where it should, there is nothing to wait for.
Pring says in his books that after a PA set up price moves in the right direction within 5-6 bars max, if not - it's a failed setup.
I'll tell you a little secret about Money Management, Trade Management and Trading in general: Keeping it simple is the only thing that works.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I took this long off the break of the Daily IB. I've taken some off the table because of the strong PPZ. I would like to see Price break through the PPZ and act as Support again. (Notice the BUOB on the weekly. I good sign.)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I took this long off the break of the Daily IB. I've taken some off the table because of the strong PPZ. I would like to see Price break through the PPZ and act as Support again. (Notice the BUOB on the weekly. I good sign.)
PZZ is strong, out with 0 net pips. The saga continues . . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I took this long off the break of the Daily IB. I've taken some off the table because of the strong PPZ. I would like to see Price break through the PPZ and act as Support again. (Notice the BUOB on the weekly. I good sign.)
D??j? vu, all over again. Let's try this again. Long at 196.59.
Break of the Weekly BUOB (197.02) will help confirm I'm on the right track. (Sorry can't post charts)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Attached GBP/JPY D1 TF..
Should u wait a while longer...for clearer setup..??
Sonic
Very wise advise sonic.
I should have stated that I entered a small position as before. If Price moves in my direction I'll add to it. If Price moves against me the loss is small.
I very rarely enter a full position on a PA set-up. But will add to the position on confirmed retrace after a breakout, Resistence turning into Support, other Price Action confirmation i.e. BUOB on the weekly, etc. (DIBS trade I will take full positions).
Losses small, profits Big. (repeat)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
D??j? vu, all over again. Let's try this again. Long at 196.59.
Break of the Weekly BUOB (197.02) will help confirm I'm on the right track. (Sorry can't post charts)
It's OK to ask me here on the thread about a trade that I posted. That's why we are here. No need to PM me.
Price failed to reach recent highs and wasn't moving with much purpose after it broke the BUOB high. So I got out with -27 pip loss on my small position.
I call this small position entry (others do as well) a "scout" after the signal is triggered. He is send out to test the waters and unfortunately he came back with a bad report on the long entry. lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I would like to echo the thanks posted above. The work and effort put into this thread has given me the courage to believe in what I see. Thank you for creating a solid path that we may follow. When I read your posts about being in the fetal position it slams home like a lighting bolt in my gut. I think Hell yeah , been there done that. Then you have moved on to not only trade profitably but are kind enough to show others the way. My heartfelt gratitude.
Jason
My fetal position also included dry heaves. This is when much of the core of Jim's thread was already written and I chose to ignore his wisdom and experience.
Much later, after I got up off the floor and clean myself up (and my charts) did things start to turn around for me. When I actually applied his advise instead of just reading about it, was the key for me.
"Heartfelt gratitude", yeah I feel that too.
Thanks Jim
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hiya ghous and Jarroo. BTW made me feel good you related to the fetal position Jarroo My pc went down on me but So I only shorted this one. Was looking to short it from Friday. Took 3 trys to get it but man its a sweet trade. lost a 1/4 %, then another 1/4% then got it right and now up around 7%. I will try and post a chart. I did get some short ghous from that ib before the beob but got whiped out. this trade im in risk was 21 pip reward over 250, trying to do the Mike pull back thing.
Jarroo do you want any charts posted?
Jason
Thanks for that Jason. I'm good now. Home sweet home.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I was close my short for this gu and waiting for confirmation to go long any idea sir .......
regrads,
my30marahaba
Take a look at ghous post a few posts back. Much of those reasons are why we are seeing a bounce. Price is moving to hard and fast to be a reversal. I'll let PA show me the way.
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ok so finally i can see the 4H bar close as a nice pin bar on the Gu chart, however this is of little surprise to me, as i mentioned earlier there was strong support here.
the problem now lies of how to go about this entire thing, what i am doing is i have a pending long order 10 pips above the pin bar high, while my short is still open, my Sl for this current short is at the same level my pending order is at. if we see a break of the pin bar resulting in a move up we have a plan to take advantage of it, and if it fails to break (it's obviously against strong bearish momentum recently built by the 4H support trendline being broken) we keep banking the short pips i guess a fair enough plan...
Regards,
Ghous.
IBFX (1st chart) and FXPro (2nd chart) have different broker times. I like FXPro. But . . . we all know how Price has been treating Pin Bars lately.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Question at Jarroo...how do you make your charts appear full size as an "attacthed image", that is you're uploading images right from your pc right? i do the same but my charts will often find the need to be opened in a seperate window to be viewed properly...
When you go to "Save as Picture", Select "Active chart" and input 600 x 600 pixels.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You have a day job? by the feel of it i can bet you're a full time trader...
I have a Day job that requires 24/7 and keeps my regular trading schedule out of whack later. Full time trader is the goal. Slowly but surely wins the race.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Trading any market type is a lot easier when you mark out prospective support/resistance flip areas. When you plan ahead and are waiting for an event to happen it's a lot easier to pull the trigger with confidence and stick to your trade management ideals.
Without the drawn in blue lines, the U/J 4 hour chart looks like an undecided mess. Get good at reading this aspect of your charts and you'll find a way to trade sideways price action too.
Given chart...
Yellow arrows point to hint of a good pivot zone forming. This type of respect (second arrow and pin that formed) tells me it's a good "trading zone". Yellow "x" marks are bars that showed further respect. Later on, two further pins would have given great trades.
The two dotted blue lines are also minor pivot areas that act as guides (for me).
...Personally, I am very weary of entering too close to price 'traffic jams' such as these. ...BUT also, plotting these can give you confidence to wait out price move pauses and quick, temporary rebounds, etc. If you are expecting a short move, exiting at these is an option. Even taking part profits and so on. (On lower time frames they will become trading zones. ) Your preference. Yours to practice.
Lots of ways to trade all these of course, but the key is seeing those pivot areas and looking for the potential in any possible move first before waiting for your great entry.
Remember that it's still all about picking the best trades, no matter what type of market condition you are trading.
I'm watching this chart to see what happens.
Tell me you played the double barrel 4 hour PBs. Doesn't get any easier then this.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Why am I having a different chart than yours? I did acted on the IB though ... Just too bad I'm still having a problem for holding on for longer term
That was a good bounce off of the PPZ though
You are using a different broker that has a different GMT time. Price is just chopped up differently. PPZs is still the same. Inside Bar, off a PPZ level. Nice.
You can aways take half off and move to break even. That way you have no worries.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Yep and people lose everyday on this thread doing it but they never learn. Once people understand how to trade a trend then they start to make money, until that happens they will lose over and over. I watched you post that trade and looked back and you can see 80% of the bars go lower so what makes you think it's just going to flip around?
Do this test.
Take a rock, have someone throw it at you do you move? I bet you do because the TREND is not going to change for no reason, what you are doing right now is getting hit in the head everytime by the rock.
I hear ya Ryan.
Small position. Tight stops. Quick pips. Counter tend trading.
Or avoid all together.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jaroo, I had similar experience on Thur-Fri last week when good reversal patterns didn't work. You see that pattern, you see the 14-month low across dollar pairs and you think - how low can it go. But right now the market has little logic - it can dig deeper and deeper.
The question then becomes - when do we start treating reversal patterns as valid?..
Higher time frames will be the key. Weekly and Monthly
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi all. I hope everyone doing good with this crazy market. jarroo did you close the USD/JPY short trade which you showed? I was just wondering your trade management. By the way the set-up was a nice one just at the daily PPZ.
Nuriksari
Happy pipping
I took half off at 87 pips and moved to break end initially. Then I chicken out and closed the 2nd half out at 33 pips.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
A man after my own heart. That's the hardest part for me, watching profit shrink to hand on for the big swing. BTW nice trade on that usd/jpy 4hr. My feed did not show it.
Jason
I usually view 3 to 4 different feeds, I don't think its necessary though. It all evens out in the end. But when they do line up, the data feeds, it adds a little bit more confidence in my decision.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi Jarroo, thanks to you and the rest of the guys for an awesome thread. I am a newbie and have just spent the last 6 weeks working through this thread, great stuff.
I would just like to ask why you did NOT take the pin which showed up 6 bars previously to your trade, ie a pin which was off support and at a swing low? In this newbie's eyes it looked like a decent set-up, just wondering the reasons for it not being taken? Any thoughts/comments would be gratefully received.
If you are asking about the "PB" in blue then the answer is simple. One of the qualifcations of a Pin Bar is that Price has to break the top (in this case). If it does not break the top it is not a Pin Bar.
Yes, the other confluences you pointed out sure caught my eye. Location, S/R levels, nice long nose, etc. It was indeed developing into a great trading opportunity. But no break, no trade.
Great question.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Many thanks for your prompt response - yes, it did not break on my feed either! Makes perfect sense now. Is it possible that some traders may have taken this pin on aretrace entry, even although the next bar did not break the high? Do you ever trade pins on a retrace or always on the break with a small pip margin?
I did in the past try to take a retrace before the break. Part of the practise and learning curve of this method. But I found that a break has to occur to even call it a Pin Bar.
If a Pin Bar breaks and then starts retracing I may look at a better entry which could be at the "eye level" or other Price Action or a S/R level.
But remember the ideal occurence (with any Price Action set-up) is that Price breaks on the very next Bar and never looks back. Much like the Usd/Jpy 4 hour PB that did break.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thx for the post...BTW..how do u decide SL...Do u put ir SL level near the end of the wick??
I am using sth similar to PB that u mentioned...with the bias of general trend...
Sonic
Yes, at the top of the wick or nose.
The best placement for a stop loss of a Price Action set-up is above or below that given set-up.
The Usd/Jpy 4 hour PB: The best place is at the red line atop the PB as mentioned. Also, you could have placed it at the eye level (orange line). Some also use Fib retracements of the PB itself for a stop loss.
I have found that a Price Action set-up would present itself, like a PB, and I would place my stop loss at a Fib or an internal S/R trying to reduce my risk.
When asked of Jim, Mike, Bundy and others where their stops were located? They all said "the top". And guess what? More often then not, I would be stopped out and they would not. Lesson learned.
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Sorry for the confusion guys. I meant Fib levels of the actual Pin Bar itself.
I can't post charts right now, but found this example of the thread.
The Fib levels of the PB itself for entry (better to wait for the break first, then retrace for an entry) or once the PB breaks Fibs as stop loss levels.
Always wait for the break.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Just took a short on the break of this DBHLC. Lets see if it works out.
Nice fjar.
Here's a great example of how one could enter into a Price Action set-up that has already broke the trigger.
DBHLC (Close to a Triple Bar High Lower Close) - Gbp/Usd - Daily.
Quick over view.
Price Action at and breaking a Support level. Not at a PPZ, but tradable none the less.
With the Bearish trend. DBHLC is bearish PA. Could be a continuation of the trend.
Anything else I'm missing that would support or conflict with this PA set-up?
Entry looks good at the 61.8 Fib (1.7488) of the PA itself. Aligned with the Support level, which could turn into Resistence. (A PPZ in the making at this level? Maybe.)
As fjaragon said. Let's see if it works out.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
well i got stopped out on this trade, I entered last night on the break down and as Mr Smith replied a few posts ago, it was dangerous since it was in a low.
So is it better to enter on a retrace like at the 50 or 61.8 fib? or enter as soon as it breaks and put your SL at the 50 - 61.8 fib of the last bar?
Thanks,
Francisco
Yes, to both questions. But look for more then one reason to determine your entry and stop loss.
Just remember that the best place to put your stop loss is above (or below) the PA set-up. In this trade it would be above 1.7655. But a 400+ pip stop loss is tough to realize. So looking within the set-up for a better placement is what I do.
A stop loss above the 61.8 level would be best because it lines up with Support level. Good confluence.
Still a 280 pip stop loss but a smaller risk.
Look for Price Action at a lower time frame.
The 4 hour chart shows a BEOB within the Daily DBHLC.
Price Action Rules.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Ok Jarroo, thanks a lot for your answer, i?ll keep this in mind! and will be watching other timeframes to have better entries or exits.
thanks,
Francisco
Hang in there fjar. I know the feeling of seeing Price Action and it works out yet I'm here with a loss. WTF?
You'll get there my friend.
I forgot to mention that Price Action on higher time frames (Daily and Weekly) tend to retrace more often. Also, the general rule of thumb with DBHLC (and DBLHC) is that Price will retrace to the 1st Bar of the two Bar formation. (blue lines)
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If you are playing only Pin Bars with the trend you are correct ghous, not in a good location.
But as a reversal Pin Bar, off of a PPZ 165.00-166.00 from 2000/2001, it is in a perfect location. A potiental "A" trade my friend. Should be fun to see how it plays out.
Jim
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agreed. it does lie on an overall support trendline for the downtrend, but i just can't forget the last two times i got burnt trying to go countertrend, this setup is a bit better than the ones i took earlier but again the bearish momentum is seriosuly disturbing me...
Regards,
Ghous.
Once bit, twice shy. Or twice bit three times shy.
Very understandable and smart. Just be open to the possibility. 8 Hour and
4 hour Price Action may show the way.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i see a few problems with the Gu setup as well, again there is nothing wrong with the pin bar itself and looks in perfect shape, but if you look to trade this you're going countertrend, noweven if you want to believe that Pin bars do work as reversal signals which ofcaorse is true and that Gu maybe reversing (the divergence is agreeing too) which may also be true, trading this particular pin bar is not what i am looking to do.
the major reason being the hurdles that price will come across in quick successions if it wants to reverse.
1) the 1.72 ppz,
2) the long term support trendline
also take note of these 2 hurdles that the price will need to jump over and the short distance in which they occur...
and finally condier the possibility of any or both of these hurdles proving too strong to be broken, what do we then get?? a great breakout-pullback trade, which i'll be anxiously looking for...
insipte of all this the pin bar may of course work out and best of luck to those who trade it, but aas far as i am concerned this is not the kind of trade i will look to go for given that it will have the added disadvantage of going against the trend.
Regards,
Ghous.
Nice work ghous. Well done.
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I really like your example charts.........hope I am learning from them! Would just like to ask about stops. I took a break of the daily pin which formed on the GB/Jpy(nice looking pin at a swing low) but was a bit spooked by the size of the stop as taught by J16, which was some 600 points! Needless to say, I placed my stop higher (at 169) and was duly stopped out for a loss, then the trade went into profit of over 250 pts. This has happened a few times recently and I was just wondering how you play these pins on the higher TFs. Do you wait for a retracement and/or go down to a lower TF to time your entry? Some of these stops are just too big for me to feel comfortable with.
As a general rule (not as a law) Price tends to retrace on higher time frames, the Daily and Weekly. This provides an opportunity to reduce our risk after Price has broken our Price Action trigger. Using Fib levels (retracements) and the other eye level in the case of the Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy. But as you know, the best location for these stops is above/below the Price Action set-up.
Once Price broke the left eye level I looked to lower time frame Price Action for a hint of where Price is going. On the Hourly, a couple Inside Bars broke above the eye level. It provided me a lower risk entry. If Price broke down the IBs, I would have taken that short.
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That was perfect, if one realised the trend is reversing. But this could have been a dangerous trade, b'coz the overall trend was bearish. So many like me would not have traded this.
Almfx
I believe what Ryanmcd has stated before that when Price is trending strong any Price Action showing a reversal (counter trend) should be veiwed with caution. But in consolidating markets these reversal patterns show promise.
We may be entering into a consolidating period.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jaroo, your analysis is always so great: methodical, simple, precise.
Once you explained it, I always think "Why didn't I see that myself".
Well done! Thank you!
Thanks 007.
Keeping it simple is always the way to go. Why? Because its the only thing that works.
"Why didn't I see that myself". I don't know how many times I've said that when studying PA. But then you'll start seeing it as it develops and then nailing down the entry comes next. I like at least a couple a reasons why to enter a trade, i.e. at a PPZ and then PA breakout, etc.
It just take time and practise. And . .. oh yeah . . . . its a whole lot of Fun.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Saw that GU pin too Jaroo and while it has been shown that CT trading is very risky, I think this CT trade had some good criteria to make it tradeable.
It was off a major Support level at the 1.700 mark (flipped back in '03 and '05) and the pair also showed some nice divergence. I personally didn't trade it because I have taken a few weeks off to focus on developing my personal strategy but I definitely took note of this one.
Pin Bars in the right location, be it with the trend as in a retracement or as a reversal, can be very powerful. This Pin Bar with its location and the confluences you have shown (nicely, I may add), could not be ignored.
Price Action formations, in and of itself, is not enough. We need location, trending or consolidating market and other confluences to support or conflict a given trade.
Nice chart stoli.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This really sums everything up perfectly, well said Jim.
Bars like the gbp/chf, gbp/jpy pins. If we can just train ourselves to wait just for these perfect ones, you will become profitable long term. I was talking in my chat last night, and saying how it is all the fiddling that we do in between these A+ setups that usually lead to breakeven trading or, negative trading.
Good stuff my friend
Mike
Thanks Mike.
If it wasn't for you, Jim and a few others I don't know where I'd be with my trading. Keep up the great work you do.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Pin's on daily TF, signaling end of retracement and continuation of trend are my favorite PA setups. If G/U and some of these yen pairs shape up i am in. I am still pretty basic so i am not sure if i would enter off of the break or on a fib retracement of the pin itself. Ah well.... see how today closes, still lots of time.
Should be fun to see how it plays out.
Gbp/Usd
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well i would never say this business is easy but i will say this.
its a heck of a lot easier taking trades like the ones on the charts i just posted when your trading a large account as opposed to a small one. a large account holder can simply be patient and wait. a small account holder just cant. i know ive been there.
every month with all the pairs we have there are easily 3 to 5 lead pipe locks and usually more. if 3 trades total 300 pips and are worth 30,000 for the month is that worth it to you? sure it is. if those same 300 pips are worth 300 or less is it worth your time and effort? usually not and its why new traders overtrade and blow out accounts.
there truly is something to be said for just demo trading for as long as it takes to save enough for a large account. been there and done that also.
jim
What the heck is a "lead pipe lock"? Is that a Texas thing?
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I understand that there is a bullish divergence. But the overall trend is down. And today's pin bounce off from ppz. So will you guys consider this a good pin? I am rather new to price action, would like to hear your comments.Thanks.
Absolutely. A good PB set-up.
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Trading against daily divergence, but also this PPZ could cause issues. Going to watch what happens with this first. Pin formed right back to this one...
Yes. That PB has a lot of work to do to be convincing. I would like to see it break hard to down side would help convince me. If it does, consolidating boundries could be forming.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
it was a sad day for me when merlin went back to live in his cave. i miss you merlin. i truly do miss you. the old days were fun my old friend.
he will probably never see this but i just felt like saying it.
the respect and admiration i have for this man is in the top 5 of my life and i never had any correspondence with him other than email. we aint in kansas any more toto.
i dont mind saying this one bit and i mean it from the bottom of my heart.
i love you magic man,
jim
I didn't know he left FF. I just thought he was always lurking in the background. Coming on your thread every now and then to see some good Oil Price Action. lol
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A lot of pairs moved the same way as the GU these past two days, didnt take that one jaroo but here are two i did take.
The red x is where I moved the stops to after today, I'm looking to ride the trend here but I will be paying attention to PA at those price labels- this may cause me to exit sooner (otherwise its mikes two bar exit method).
Nice job stoli.
The Daily RULES!
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I went for the deep retrace, but can't remember the rationale. Went to bed and woke up to the run down.
Would have been nice to see my free running GJ entries not get stopped out too. ...And they were WELL stacked up when I hit the sack too! lol
I entered at 1.7535. I can't post my charts right now so I had to grab this one off the thread, which is good because it was before the big move down.
I would like to just take the break and place the s/l at the other end and go about my business (sleep). But I like playing off the left eye level on Pin Bars. To me they act as S/R levels. They are so easy to do when they are at lows/highs with space as you and Mike so clearly state. But when they are in "traffic" that eye level or S/R level is not as clear.
At first, one would assume that the orange line "A" would be the eye level. If this was at a high/low with space, yes it would be. But this is in traffic with the trend so I looked for another S/R level (orange line "B"). I played below that level (1.7550 RD) at 1.7535.
Edit: stoploss was placed above the PB.
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Last edited by jarroo, Oct 15, 2008 9:02pm
Reason: stop loss placement
So you placed 1.7535 as a limit sell and went to bed? In many cases price won't retrace that deep on your pin... are you not scared that you will miss a good trade?
I have missed good trades when I didn't get the Price I wanted.
Oh well . .tomorrow is a different day.
I usually will always take a small position on the break of a qualified PA set-up and build from there if warranted.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Yes, there are many times and reasons for this and it all comes back to liquidity. These are illiquid times, just as news is illiquid, or early sunday before banks are opening and the books are thin. This will cause all spread widening slippage etc. For example aud/usd has been highly illiquid which has lead to some crazy spreads, which means less money to move the market etc. Check out darkstars thread on The structure of Forex brokers.
As for getting the quoted price if you are using market order , which you are by the wording then you are telling your broker to give me any price out there in the world, that all you want to do is get in. Protect yourself with bounds or LIMIT orders.
Illiquid markets + market orders = at the mercy of your broker/market
Trade safe out there
Out for a small trip for the weekend cya guys sunday!
Mike
You deserve it my friend. Thanks for a great week of info.
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Am I seeing a PB in EJ 1H TF??
Kinda Counter T though,,,
sonic
Carefull. BEOB on the 4 hour. I'm not saying it won't work, but it's always good to check the higher time Price Action to see if it agrees with your decision.
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Nice to see everybody get their share of these good times after having let go the pins earlier cuz of the fact they were counter trend but not long after worrying for all the pips foregone i soon got my share too when i took the with trend PBs in Nu, Gj and Au.
Regards,
Ghous.
Nice job ghous. I was wondering if you took that Pin Bar on the G/U and G/Y.
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A friend of mine joined James' group a couple of months ago, and he loves it. From what he's mentioned to me it sounds as though he's really benefiting from the experience, both on his immediate trading discipline, and his increasing knowledge of s + r etc.
However, one thing he's related to me causes me some concern.
Apparently, he's been told that he should utterly disregard all fundamental information. Now my own belief, and that of many others, revolves around the principle of \"Trade the technicals, but know the fundamentals\". As he has been told to 'forget' about fundamentals, he's subsequently got no interest in learning about the structure of the fx market, avoiding 'red flag' trades, stop-hunting sweeps, what s + r really is or any of the other 'basics'. This to me seems like trading with one eye closed, if you know what I mean.
I struggle to reconcile what, on the one hand, is obviously a very highly regarded mentor and teaching programme, with, on the other hand, an almost nonchalant approach to what the actual 'thing' is which we are all doing.
Any comments?
News is Price and Price is News.
Except for the 1st Friday of the Month and Interest Annoucement.
That's what I go by and it's working very well.
Jim
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Did you enter the trade on a red line or on a magenta line?
I entered on the break (Red line). Above the Magenta line is my stop loss. That line is the low of the BEOB, 1st Bar (candle). (Stop loss is now at break even).
If Price broke the BEOB and then retraced to Magenta line I would have entered there. But Price did not, so I entered on the break.
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Hahaha! Nice one Jarroo, would you believe it, i was waiting for this setup for soooo longggg and when the opporunity came i missed it was just too busy lately! HUH! I was talking earlier of the possibility of Gu returning to a bearish mode after that intial Pin it formed sown south, DAMN! Nice ride for you anyways, i am sure most would have caught this one. As for me i'll be waiting for another move to catch while i enjoy the fact that i atleast shunned that inside feeling of wanting to get in without enough time to think over the trade. Better to be out wishing i was in rather than in the market wishing i was out the 1.7 level was right in the way anyways...
Regards,
Ghous.
Great line ghous.
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Firstly congrats on your success, it is a great feeling when the studying practicing starts to click.
I am a very conservative trader, so for me this is a trade I wouldn't take. Not because it wouldn't give some pips, but just doesn't fit my style. Jarroo might be more likely too.
My reasons for staying out would have been the sideways market the it is located in. This would tend to hold price up at some of the trouble areas(blue box area). Had you been watching your short around this area that would be the time to lock in profit, scale out, move to b/e etc. So overall I think you still played it well as you knew not to get carried away with a trade in traffic.
This is where James would say, if you take a loss on a trade like this you are crazy, because of the location of the bar.
Well done
Mike
Mike is right.
I would have taken take PB on the G/J if available. S/L above the left eye (Sunday bar ignored). I like the confluence with the trendline.
I like learning and practising on these "B" type trades, but I usually will not use a full position.
I'm sloooowwwwlllyy turning into a more conservative trader like Mike. I don't like saying "conservative trader" it's more like "Smarter Trader".
Jim
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James thank you very much for those new charts, its always very refreshing.
Anyway here's my trade from today, seemed like a lot of pairs had big moves so i didn't have any setups on those pairs.
Playing the inside bar (indecision) with a break out to the short side. Feel free to comment, stop at 1.9495, sell stop entry at 1.8887.
I like Inside Bars that are smaller in range. Even though it may be a I4B or a I5B, I7B, I10B. I would like to see a smaller range. They tend to foresee a larger breakout. imo
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There are a few pin set ups on dailies, cable & geppy look good, well sized pin, good positions. I'm not calling a bottom but price action might be signalling a big rally off these lows before more down.
Actually, those are not Pin Bars on the Daily cable and geppy. The Open and Close are not within the previous Bar.
The 4 hour on the geppy shows a more ideal Pin Bar.
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A practise Pin Bar I'm looking at on the 8 hour chart from Friday. (10-24-08)
This 8H Pin Bar presented itself on Friday off of new Lows. There are no S/R levels or PPZs for miles . . I mean . . for months. So, additional current confluences to support this potienal PB reversal is lacking.
Price did break the top but I did not take it, I don't take any signals late on Fridays. Anyway this is practising Price Action.
Where would you enter if you were so inclined?
Retrace of the PB itself using Fibs is an option. Or just wait until Price breaks the top again maybe a better option in this strong down tending market.
Should be fun to see how it plays out.
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u went long???
I have made 2 mistake by going counter T..today..
Luckily, was able to kill my emo, and got out...re-compose and shorted...covered the loss and i m in green territory..now//
Sonic
Yes. I noted that it was a practise trade. It was a good looking Pin Bar, but that's all it was "Good looking". No other current confluences to support it. It was worth a shot. This is how I learn.
What was the set-up you had on your 2 counter trades today?
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Attached is 5 M TF...
I was in HK index 1 lot short with \"black\" line and \"red\" as SL....5mins before HK opens...
*But once it opens...there was a big green bar...I was down near $200 in a flash
* It hasn't hit my SL but panic set in...
* Guess what I did?? I covered my short and went love \"two lot\"...@blue line 1...and my SL hit @ blue line 2...
* My emotion trades cause me -$700 in a flash...
Another bad trade was Blue 3 and 4,,,,i was caught up in lunch break...
So...total emo trade cost me $1000 ....
Re-compose myself..access the situation
Shorted @ Black v....
TP @ Blue 6...
and still hav my G/U short...
Sonic
My was live as well but a small position.
5 min TF is tough business in my book. You may want to take a smaller position and stop loss against the trend. I would demo more with your method for awhile to get back on track.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jaroo, where would one draw the line in terms of TFs used. I.e. if you can see a PB on H8, but there is no solid PA on other TFs, wouldn't that be a bit of \"PA hunting\"?..
I know many people use \"odd\" TFs (M10, H2, H8) successfully, and perhaps there is a logic behind that (e.g. if the close of an H8 bar co-incides with the London close), but maybe some other tools (TL, Fibo) could be used for the same purpose on more \"traditional\" TFs.
Just a thought...
I'll look at the 4 Hour, 8 Hour, 16 Hour, Daily, 2 Day, 3 Day, Weekly, 2 Week. etc. Looking at different Time Frames and combining Bars is indeed an interesting study of Price Action. Just remember, Price Action formations are only part of the equation that adds up to a potential PA set-up.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Just kidding. As you said, Jaroo, that's what practice is for. Besides, we are all 20/20 clever, and if smth made sense in the past, the decision (for you) was valid, whether the move happened or not.
BTW, Jaroo, why didn't you take H1 DIBS trade on cable? It moved well to good S/R levels. I got out at 200pip (original SL was 30 pips - not per DIBS rules, but I entered when the move started (to reduce SL)), but it went for another 140. Wait a minute, just checked your DIBS thread - you did took that trade. So, did you trade BOTH long and short today on the same pair?..
Hey 007 just saw your post sorry.
I closed my long position and took the DIBS trade.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Well those 4hr and my EU trade from a few days ago didn't work out too well. Here's my trade today on the UCAD, tried shorting this a few days ago when the pin formed but it never triggered for me.
Nice stoli.
The PPZ, 150/365 ems & 50 Fib on the Monthly and the potential (underlined potential) Pin Bar on the weekly.
This one could bring out a James16 chart.
Jim
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I would like to refer back to the Friday (10/24) 8 Hour Pin Bar. If one took the trade on the break and placed the stop loss below the PB then you would be looking pretty right now. Proving once again that the ideal placement of stop losses is above/below the given PA set-up.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Well those 4hr and my EU trade from a few days ago didn't work out too well. Here's my trade today on the UCAD, tried shorting this a few days ago when the pin formed but it never triggered for me.
STOLI THIS ONE'S FROM YOU! USDCAD
Let's break this down SIMPLY.
Monthly Chart show PPZ, 50% retrace (50% is a retrace not a fib) and 150/365 emas. Red flag! Red flag! If you think PPZs are strong on the Daily think how strong they are on the Monthly.
Weekly chart showed signs of a forming PB. (chart not shown)
Daily BEOB. (Thanks stoli.)
8 hour Inside Bar.
4 hour Pin Bar.
This is how we roll, James16 style.
(Sorry Jim I beat you to it.)
Jim
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There's a nice PB on the Silver 3h (for Oanda users) & 4h chart.
The red line - 200 EMA, the other line - 200 SMA.
The PB looks like a rejection in that area. With MACD also positive on these time frames, I'd say it's a nice setup worth at least 40 - 50 cents (also taking into consideration how choppy silver is, after this break higher it could use the retracement).
Any Support and/or Resistence Levels in the area?
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1 hour chart below shows the crowding around the trend line before a likely break.
The 4 hour bars aren't pins. They're neutral.
Thanks bundy.
No obvious PA on the Daily or Weekly time frames. The big 4 hour PB a few days ago may give the hint and still be in play. 4 hour IBs to the down side only could be a possible trade with tight stops.
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to continue a bit with round numbers. Watch USD/JPY if we reach the 100 level. Right before we got there we had HUGE sell orders come in at 99.70ish. Look at the huge bearish bar that was created even with price exploding higher. You know you had big sellers(I am not talkinga bout you and me), to sell in right ahead of that number. There could be barrier option they were protecting or various other reasons. Now because we know 100 is a very psychological number, next time around we can expect. This area again to be protected, or I can nearly guarantee we have heavy orderflow in the way of stops located above this number. If you watch price on a much smaller scale when it goes through this number...
Rambling? Are you kidding me?
If it wasn't for your "ramblings" I would probably quit this bussiness years ago. I call them Gems of info.
Ramble away my friend, as often as you like.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
And once more Jim, Mike, SL, Jarroo, Bundy and many others thanks a Gazillion for changing our lives for ever!!!!!!!!
Yes, its true that Jim and others have provide us some great information on this method of trading. They provide wisdom, knowledge and support like no other in this business.
But remember it is You that has to put the time in that is necessary. It's You that does the due diligence required. It's You that makes it happen.
So don't forget to add "You" to the list.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This looks like 'A Trade' PB's on most pairs today, My question is: What is the correct way to enter this trade?
1. Enter on the open of next bar (daily TF)
2. Enter on the retracement 38/50/62 and PPz (or confluence) on the next (daily TF)
3. Are just find ways to make entry in other shorter TF's
**Just to refresh the knowledge==> What would most people do and what will profitable traders do?
Short answer:
The best way to enter (imo) is on the break of the Pin Bar. Actually, it is not considered a true PB until there is a break. When there is a break, more often then not, there will be retracement especially on higher time frames. Then you can look for fib retracements, S/R levels, lower time frame PA, etc. for a better entry.
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I would like to ask abt a safe strategy to reduce the risk invloved in a trade. I generally like to move my stop (that is trading of the daily) atleast to a breakeven as soon as i hit thrre figure pips, is that a good strategy? i ask because for some reason i don't like the idea of having to leave the market with nothing atall while experiencing the excitment of a three figure pip trade. Now for example take the current market situation. The pairs seem to be retracing slightly, my stops on each of the 4 trades i have taken (chf/jpy, eur/jpy, eur/usd, gbp/usd) are at breakeven, now if i get stopped out i'll feel really bad.
So do i need to feel bad atall?
Do not feel bad about a break even trade. I would feel bad if I didn't take some of the three figure pip gain off the table.
Take this Euro trade for example.
I hit my target at the 1.2700 level (three figure pip ) and moved to break even. I always give my trades a chance to run.
Edit: My entry was the break of the 4 hour Inside Bar.
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Combining the last 2 wkly bars on cadchf(fx open feed) will give a very long PB across the supports .9600 and .9100.Though it counter trend looks very long.Tried to attach a picture that shows at the thumb arrow other points where it formed recently. Just learning, so mike Jaroo, J16, bundy et all will appreciate thots.
Also on USDCAD wkly joining the last 2 bars wil give a big PB. The close is Just beneath the high of d 2nd pair of Pb on the left.It s across 50% fib(from 2001 high to 2007 low) 365 wkly MA, 1.2700 PPZ.
Somene has mentioned the BEOVB on eurcad.
Im trying
to attach the charts.
I would have liked the head of the 2 Week PB red instead of blue. But it sure will be fun to watch how it reacts to the current PPZ.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If you?re a meta trader user just right click on the meta trader chart and go to ?Save As Picture?.
Then ?Select the image you would like to save:? Pick ?Active chart? at ?600 x 600 pixels? the click ?OK?
Save anywhere you want i.e. Desktop.
Then when you enter to post comments go down to ?Manage Attachments? click that.
Then click ?Browse? to find your pic you want to attach, i.e. Desktop.
Click the pic you want and hit ?Open?, Then hit ?Upload?.
Wait for it to upload then close the ?Manage Attachments? window. Then make sure you hit the ?Submit Reply? button that is under the ?Manage Attachments? button.
Done.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
No, no. Hang on. I think you've miss-understood. lol
I meant the pullback and the fib. AFTER the break out. I will have to do an example. I'll definitely do one later. It's hard to explain without some examples.
I may be wrong, but if Price has a trendline break out and retraces back to the green box, along with supporting PA, would help confirm a trendline breakout.
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What do you guys here think about this pin? As what i have read in this thread, this is a pin bar you should trade, shouldn't it? how many percent of win you guys think it is, i hope it gone to 1.5260, stop @ 1.4390, entry at 50% ret of pin @ 1.4600, that's what i planed.
Looks like it has potential, but Price hasn't broke the PB. I would wait until Price breaks and look for a retracement.
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Just thought I'd let you guys know I've had 17 winners out of my last 19 trades using the J16 methods, my most consistent run in trading(demo).
Today i took entries on 4hr pins on G/J, G/Chf, and cable, and came out with 275 pips. However the moves went a lot further and I could have made 5-600 pips easily if I had stayed in.
My question is: as a relative newbie should I just be happy with winning trades/modest gains or should I be shooting for the big moves and riding them all the way? Also, how long do you give a trade to breathe before you get out? eg do you give a trade on the daily 3 or 4 days to go your way, and if it doesn', get out? Or leave it until it...
Can you post charts on some of those trades?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks as always for your kind words of encouragement. Maybe I am on alucky streak or something as I would be the first to admit that all of my trades are not A+ trades, although I try to take pins with the trend. Even the 2 losers were in profit at some point but let them turn round!
Although I am trying hard to think and act like I am trading with real money, I know that the psychology changes when real money is on the line. However I have tightened up my discipline and I am much more focused, so the aim is to take these good habits into real money trading.
[i]Still have loads to learn but I am starting to see the potential of this stuff thanks to yourself, james...
The VT is similar to IBFX 4 hour PB.
Nice trades bert. Mike makes some good points, your doing something right. You can't argue with success and I do not what to distract from that.
Just something to think about. If Price Action got you into a trade, why not let Price Action take you out. Also look for S/R levels as possible targets to take profits and places to hide behind for your stop losses.
I was just curious on why and where you exited.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks for [posting]those charts man. Yes that was one of the trades I took. Exited at 158.50, approx at the low of the previos bar and the high of bar before that, as I thought price might stall there. As usual I came out too early, doing that on most of my trades so it is something I will hve to work hard on. In the past have let a lot of winners turn in to losers, so trying to make sure I don't hand back profits. I seem to be doing well with the entries but I suppose the exits are more important. Still gotta lot of work to do!
Thanks for your advice man - like mike, I always pay attention to your posts as I am learning from them,
cheers,
bertie
Nice job bert. You sound like your on the right path my friend. It's good that your exit was based on a level that you thought was going to stall and/or reverse then just picking a random 50 pips, 100 pips, etc. Remember you can always take half or 4/5, or 9/10 or 55/56 (lol) off the table and let the rest ride.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks for your kind words. Like james and mike, as far as I am concerned you are one of the main guys I pay attention to, so please keep your charts, thoughts and comments coming thick and fast!
Whilst I love the words 'take off the table! as this implies profit!!, I suppose you have to stop thinking 'oh, I could have had another 100pips....' etc, as this is giving into the emotion of greed, one of the trader's main enemies.
Still, having winning trades while learning this stuff certainly gives encouragement to learn even more. Have to tell you though that I want to be more conservative because some of my trades are of the B + C category.
So if you find any A+ trades my friend...
I am a bit more aggressive then say Mike. Trading and practising B & C trades helps me fine tuning my trading. So when an "A" trade comes along it become very easy to recognize and profit from. The key is just time and practise.
You'll get there in no time.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
james16 Chart Thread
) but chickened out
and there was a triple bar pattern @ 209.57 to 210.20....This I learned from these great charts you have posted. I can actually tell where I am going! Thanks!
. 
)
:. I wouldnt take the dbhlc as a signal to go short in any case, just a heads up that eur might have some unfinished business lower down. Might. 
Its easier to pick cherries when they are motionless on the branch then to run around and catch them when falling.
)
. . all we're really doing is practising Price Action on the hourly chart. We are still practising the method and with practise (as with anything in life) we'll get better and sharper. 
)
)
. Hit me back up if you need anymore charts just tell me time frame etc.
